Part 3: Fiscal outlook

Overview

The Australian Government's underlying cash surplus for 2006-07 is estimated to be $11.8 billion, marginally stronger than the 2006-07 Budget forecast. In accrual terms, a fiscal surplus of $10.4 billion is estimated for 2006-07. The fiscal outlook is for continuing underlying cash and fiscal surpluses in the forward years.

Table 5: Australian Government general government sector budget aggregates^(a)(b)

1. All estimates are based on Government Finance Statistics (GFS) standards, but with goods and services tax (GST) revenue collected on behalf of the States and Territories netted off revenue and expenses.
2. Budget estimates, including the per cent of GDP, are as published in Budget Paper No. 1, Budget Strategy and Outlook 2006-07.
3. For the 2006-07 MYEFO, 2007-08 has moved from a projection to an estimates year.
4. Excludes expected Future Fund earnings.

Table 6 provides a reconciliation of the fiscal balance estimates between the 2006-07 Budget and the Mid‑Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook 2006-07 (MYEFO).

Table 6: Reconciliation of general government fiscal balance estimates^(a)

1. A positive number for revenue indicates an increase in the fiscal balance, while a positive number for expenses and net capital investment indicates a decrease in the fiscal balance.
2. Excludes the public debt net interest effect of policy measures.