Australian Government, 2007–08 Budget

Conclusion

This statement has illustrated the remarkable performance of the Australian economy and, in particular, the labour market. Across a broad range of indicators, Australia's economic credentials, including its labour force utilisation, have been impressive. Unemployment rates are at historic lows, employment growth has been high and Australia's participation rate has increased and is well above the OECD average.

There are a number of factors which are important in explaining the strong performance of the labour market. These affect both the demand and supply of labour and include monetary and fiscal policies to maintain macroeconomic stability as well as ongoing economic reform initiatives in the areas of taxation, welfare, labour markets, education and training and immigration.

However, Australia cannot rest on past success. A number of challenges are on the horizon. In particular, in terms of labour market participation, the Intergenerational Report 2007 highlights the impact the ageing of the population will have on reducing Australia's overall participation rate. In addition, the Productivity Commission has highlighted Australia's relatively low levels of participation for certain key cohorts (particularly, prime aged males and females of child bearing age).

For Australia to maintain its impressive economic performance and rates of economic growth into the future there needs to be a continuous focus on maintaining an economic environment which provides the ways and means of improving labour market utilisation. The Productivity Commission estimates that if Australia were to achieve the best practice participation levels of OECD countries, the number of workers would increase by around 600,000, or 5.7 per cent of the current workforce.

While this statement has shown that improving Australia's labour utilisation rate will be important in maintaining strong economic growth, it is only part of the story. As outlined in the beginning of this statement, the other key source of continuing growth in per capita incomes is productivity. Given the demographic trends outlined in the Intergenerational Report 2007, and the trends outlined in this statement, Australia needs to maintain the current policy thrust to get best labour market outcomes while at the same time continuing with the ongoing task of improving productivity performance. The combination of these factors provides the greatest prospect for continuing growth in living standards in the long term.

References

Abhayaratna, J and Lattimore, R 2006, Workforce Participation Rates — How Does Australia Compare?, Productivity Commission Staff Working Paper, Canberra.

Baker, J and von Sanden, N 2006, 'Estimating average annual hours worked', Research Paper, Australian Bureau of Statistics, June 2006, Canberra.

Blanchard, O 2004, 'The economic future of Europe', The Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol 18, No. 4.

Bourles, R and Cette, G 2006, 'A comparison of structural productivity levels in the major industrialised countries' Banque de France Notes d'Etudes et de Recherche, NER-R#133, October 2006.

Bourles, R and Cette, G 2006, 'Trends in 'structural' productivity levels in the major industrialised countries' Banque de France Notes d'Etudes et de Recherche, NER-E#156, September 2006.

Commonwealth of Australia 2007, Intergenerational Report 2007.

Cotis, J and Coppel, J 2005, 'Business cycle dynamics in OECD countries — evidence, causes and policy implications' in Kent, C and Norman, D (eds) The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle, Reserve Bank of Australia.

Doiron, D and Kalb, G 2005, 'Demands for childcare and household labour supply in Australia', Economic Record, vol 81, no. 254, pp 215 36.

Harding, D 2002, The Effect of Unfair Dismissal Laws on Small and Medium Businesses, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, University of Melbourne.

Kalb, G and Lee, W 2007, 'Childcare use and parents' labour supply in Australia', Melbourne Institute Working Paper No 13/07, University of Melbourne. http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/wp/wp2007n13.pdf.

Kennedy, S and Da Costa, A 2006, 'Older men bounce back: the re-emergence of older male workers', Economic Roundup, Spring 2006.

Kennedy, S and Hedley, D 2003, 'Educational attainment and labour force participation in Australia', Economic Roundup, Winter 2003.

Kent, C, Smith, K and Holloway, J 2005, 'Declining output volatility — what role for structural change' in Kent, C and Norman, D (eds), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle, Reserve Bank of Australia.

Lawson, R and Bierhanzl, E 2004, 'Labour market flexibility: an index approach to cross country comparisons', Journal of Labor Research, vol 25, no. 1 pp 117-127.

McGuckin, R and van Ark, B 2005, 'Productivity and participation: an international comparison', Groningen Growth and Development Centre, Research Memorandum GD-78, August 2005.

Morgan Job Security Poll 2007, Roy Morgan Research, Finding no. 4120, http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2006/4120/.

OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation 1998, Human Capital Investment: An International Comparison, OECD, Paris.

OECD 2004a, Employment Outlook 2004, OECD, Paris.

OECD 2004b, Trends in International Migration 2004, OECD, Paris.

OECD 2005, OECD Economic Surveys: France, vol 2005/10, OECD, Paris.

OECD 2006a, OECD Economic Surveys: Australia, vol 2006/12, OECD, Paris.

OECD 2006b, Education at a Glance, OECD, Paris.

OECD 2006c, Society at a Glance: OECD Social Indicators — 2006 Edition, OECD, Paris.

OECD 2006d, Employment Outlook 2006, OECD, Paris.

Productivity Commission 2006a, Economic Impacts of Migration and Population Growth, Final Report, April.

Productivity Commission 2006b, The Role of Non-Traditional Work in the Australian Labour Market, Commission Research Paper, Melbourne, May.

Rammohan, A and Whelan, S 2005, 'Child care and female employment decisions', Australian Journal of Labour Economics, 8(2), pp 203-225.