Appendix H
Detailed economic forecasts
The table below shows the Government's macroeconomic forecasts. The Australian economy is expected to grow by 4 per cent in 2011‑12 and 3¾ per cent in 2012‑13. More comprehensive information is provided in Budget Paper No. 1, Budget Strategy and Outlook 2011‑12, Statement 2.
- (a) Percentage change on preceding year unless otherwise indicated.
- (b) Calculated using original data unless otherwise indicated.
- (c) Chain volume measures except for nominal gross domestic product which is in current prices.
- (d) Excluding second hand asset sales from the public sector to the private sector.
- (e) Percentage point contribution to growth in GDP.
- (f) Seasonally adjusted, through‑the‑year growth rate to the June quarter.
- (g) Seasonally adjusted rate in the June quarter.
- (h) Through‑the‑year growth rate to the June quarter.
- Note: The forecasts for the domestic economy are based on several technical assumptions. The exchange rate is assumed to remain around its recent average level — a trade‑weighted index of around 78 and a US$ exchange rate of around 107 US cents. Interest rates are assumed to move broadly in line with market expectations. World oil prices (Malaysian Tapis) are assumed to remain around US$132 per barrel. The farm sector forecasts are based on average seasonal conditions in 2012‑13.