Statement 5: Revenue
While Government receipts are recovering from the global financial crisis trough, their growth is slower than previously expected.
Owing to economic circumstances and other factors (that is, abstracting from policy measures), tax receipts excluding GST have been revised down from the 2011‑12 Mid‑Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) by $3.8 billion in 2011‑12 and $16.5 billion over the four years to 2014‑15. This has been partly offset by policy measures.
Total receipts are expected to grow by 11.8 per cent in 2012‑13. This represents a downward revision since the 2011‑12 MYEFO of $5.8 billion in 2012‑13 and $18.7 billion over the four years to 2014‑15.
It is expected that tax receipts as a share of GDP will remain well below pre‑global financial crisis levels over the entire forward estimates period. Structural factors are acting to constrain the tax‑to‑GDP ratio beyond the forecast period.
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