Appendix H
Detailed economic forecasts
The table below shows the Government's macroeconomic forecasts(a). The Australian economy is expected to grow 3¼ per cent in 2012‑13 and 3 per cent in 2013‑14. More comprehensive information is provided in Budget Paper No. 1, Budget Strategy and Outlook 2012‑13, Statement 2.
- (a)Percentage change on preceding year unless otherwise indicated.
- (b)Calculated using original data unless otherwise indicated.
- (c)Chain volume measures except for nominal gross domestic product which is in current prices.
- (d)Excluding second-hand asset sales from the public sector to the private sector.
- (e)Percentage point contribution to growth in GDP.
- (f)Seasonally adjusted, through-the-year growth rate to the June quarter.
- (g)Seasonally adjusted rate for the June quarter.
- (h)Through-the-year growth rate to the June quarter.
- Note: The forecasts for the domestic economy are based on several technical assumptions. The exchange rate is assumed to remain around its recent average level - a trade-weighted index of around 77 and a US$ exchange rate of around 103 US cents. Interest rates are assumed to move broadly in line with market expectations. World oil prices (Malaysian Tapis) are assumed to remain around US$126 per barrel. The farm sector forecasts are based on average seasonal conditions in 2012-13 and 2013-14.
- Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) cat. no. 5206.0, 5302.0, 6202.0, 6345.0, 6401.0, unpublished ABS data and Treasury.