Australian Government, 2013-14 Budget
Budget

Statement 5: Revenue (Continued)

Receipts growth

Individuals' income and other withholding taxation receipts

Receipts from gross income tax withholding (ITW) have grown over 9 per cent in both 2010‑11 and 2011‑12. In 2012‑13, receipts from ITW are expected to grow by 5.3 per cent ($7.5 billion), reflecting more moderate growth in wages and salaries and tax cuts associated with the Clean Energy Future Package announced in the 2011‑12 MYEFO. In 2013‑14, receipts from ITW are expected to grow by 8.6 per cent ($12.9 billion) as wages growth strengthens. In 2014‑15 receipts from ITW are expected to grow by 8.2 per cent ($13.4 billion) partly reflecting the increase in the Medicare levy by half a percentage point from 1 July 2014 to provide strong and stable funding for DisabilityCare Australia.

In the projection years, receipts from ITW grow by 7.9 per cent ($13.9 billion) in 2015‑16 and 6.6 per cent ($12.6 billion) in 2016‑17. The growth in ITW receipts in the projection years returns to trend, reflecting longer‑term growth in wages and salaries, consistent with the projection year parameters.

Gross other individuals (OI) receipts are expected to grow by 6.9 per cent ($2.2 billion) in 2012‑13, reflecting solid growth in non‑wage income. In 2013‑14, receipts from OI are expected to grow slower by 3.3 per cent ($1.1 billion), largely due to changes to the tax scales associated with the Clean Energy Future Package and the effect of lower nominal GDP growth in 2012‑13 on expected instalment payments. From 2014‑15 to the end of the forward estimates, receipts from OI are expected to grow above trend as the stock of capital losses are utilised and capital gain income recovers.

Income tax refunds for individuals, which have a negative impact on receipts, are expected to grow by 4.7 per cent ($1.2 billion) in 2012‑13, mainly reflecting individuals' income tax assessments for 2011‑12. Individuals' refunds are then expected to grow by 0.2 per cent ($50 million) in 2013‑14 as a result of weaker expected individuals' income in 2012‑13. In the projection years, refunds for individuals are expected to return to longer‑term trend growth.

Receipts from fringe benefits tax (FBT) are expected to grow by 3.5 per cent ($129 million) in 2012‑13 (following 13 per cent growth in 2011‑12), reflecting modest growth in average wages. FBT growth is expected to be 10.6 per cent ($410 million) in 2013‑14 and 9.1 per cent ($390 million) in 2014‑15, primarily reflecting previously announced policy, particularly the reform of the statutory formula method for valuing car fringe benefits. In the projection years, FBT is expected to return to growth consistent with growth in wages and salaries.

Company and other related income taxation receipts

Company tax is expected to fall by 0.9 per cent ($584 million) in 2012‑13, reflecting an expected fall in corporate profitability. In 2013‑14, company tax receipts are expected to grow by 8.6 per cent ($5.7 billion), due to the introduction of monthly pay‑as‑you‑go instalments for large companies, as announced at the 2012‑13 MYEFO which results in a one‑off bring‑forward of payments.

Over 2014‑15 and the projection years, receipts from company tax are expected to grow by 1.6 per cent ($1.2 billion) in 2014‑15, 7.8 per cent ($5.7 billion) in 2015‑16 and 5.5 per cent ($4.4 billion) in 2016‑17. These varying growth rates also reflect the effect of the pay‑as‑you‑go policy change and the Protecting the corporate tax base from base erosion and loopholes package, before returning to more normal rates of growth in line with corporate gross operating surplus projections.

Superannuation funds

Receipts from superannuation funds are expected to grow by 1.6 per cent ($118 million) in 2012‑13 and 8.6 per cent ($660 million) in 2013‑14, reflecting a modest recovery from the GFC lows in wage and salaries growth and asset prices.

The growth in superannuation fund receipts accelerates in 2014‑15 and the projection years as the effect of GFC related losses unwinds and policy changes begin to take effect. These policy reforms include the gradual increase in the Superannuation Guarantee rate from 9 to 12 per cent and the timing effects of the pay‑as‑you‑go policy change. Note that revenue expected to be raised by the Sustaining the Superannuation Contribution Concession has been reclassified to other individuals.

Resource rent taxes

Gross resource rent taxes (comprising MRRT and PRRT) are expected to grow by $1.4 billion in 2013‑14 and $400 million in 2014‑15. MRRT is expected to increase significantly over the forward estimates reflecting strong volumes and lower capital investment as the economy transitions from the investment phase of the mining boom towards a record expansion in resources production and exports. Net MRRT is expected to grow by $500 million in 2013‑14 and $300 million in 2014‑15. In the projection years, net MRRT is expected to grow by $400 million in 2015‑16 and $800 million in 2016‑17.

PRRT receipts are expected to decrease in 2012‑13, reflecting in part the ongoing dampening impact of a high exchange rate, a softening in petroleum prices and lower assumed production levels across a number of fields. PRRT receipts are expected to return towards long run trends over the forward estimates, mainly reflecting anticipated cost and production trends.

Goods and services tax

Goods and services tax (GST) receipts are expected to increase by 4.5 per cent ($2.1 billion) in 2012‑13. In 2013‑14, GST receipts are expected to grow by 5.3 per cent ($2.5 billion) reflecting growth in taxable consumption and dwelling investment. GST receipts are expected to grow by 5.1 per cent ($2.6 billion) in 2014‑15 and, in the projection years, 5.6 per cent ($3.0 billion) in 2015‑16 and 5.1 per cent ($2.9 billion) in 2016‑17.

Excise and customs duty

Receipts from excise are expected to increase by 0.1 per cent ($25 million) in 2012‑13, mostly due to diesel excise offset by falls in other categories. In 2013‑14, excise receipts are expected to increase by 3.9 per cent ($1.0 billion), partly due to an extra payment day for collections. Receipts in 2014‑15 are expected to grow by 1.1 per cent ($290 million) which is lower than trend growth due to fewer collections days than the previous year. In the projection years, excise duties are expected to grow in line with long‑term trends.

Customs duties are expected to grow by 20.9 per cent ($1.5 billion) in 2012‑13, reflecting strength in excise‑like goods. In 2013‑14, customs duty receipts are expected to grow by 4.3 per cent ($360 million), reflecting strength in most sources of customs duty. In 2014‑15, customs duty is expected to increase by 1.7 per cent ($150 million), reflecting strength in most sources of duty, but offset by a reduction in the rate of duty applied to textiles, clothing and footwear. Customs duties are expected to return to more normal rates of growth in 2016‑17.

Carbon pricing mechanism

Receipts from the carbon pricing mechanism are expected to grow by around 50 per cent in 2013‑14 largely reflecting the arrangements for sales of permits under the fixed‑price and floating‑price periods, and that 2012‑13 is the first year of the mechanism. The 2013‑14 receipts capture the wash‑up payments for 2012‑13 fixed‑price permits, the progressive payment for 2013‑14 fixed‑price permits, and the commencement of auctions of floating price permits for the years 2015‑16 and 2016‑17.

Following modest growth in 2014‑15, carbon pricing mechanism receipts are expected to fall 27 per cent in 2015‑16 following the end of the fixed price period in 2014‑15 and the link to the European price in 2015‑16. Receipts are projected to fall a further 27 per cent in 2016‑17 largely because there are no longer any fixed‑price receipts.

Non‑taxation receipts

Non‑taxation receipts (including Future Fund earnings) are expected to increase by 21 per cent ($4.2 billion) in 2012‑13, and decrease by 12.3 per cent ($3.0 billion) in 2013‑14. The increase in 2012‑13 is largely a consequence of the sale of 15 year licences of 800MHz spectrum and changed arrangements for unclaimed superannuation funds and unclaimed company, bank account and life insurance monies.

Table 7: Australian Government general government (cash) receipts
  Actual    Estimates   Projections
   2011‑12
$m
   2012‑13
$m
2013‑14
$m
2014‑15
$m
   2015‑16
$m
2016‑17
$m
Individuals' and other withholding taxes                
Gross income tax withholding 142,770   150,300 163,200 176,600   190,500 203,100
Gross other individuals 31,141   33,300 34,400 38,400   43,200 47,900
less: Refunds 25,537   26,750 26,800 28,350   30,250 32,100
Total individuals' and other withholding tax 148,373   156,850 170,800 186,650   203,450 218,900
Fringe benefits tax 3,731   3,860 4,270 4,660   5,000 5,310
Company tax 66,584   66,000 71,650 72,800   78,450 82,800
Superannuation funds 7,562   7,680 8,340 10,040   12,650 14,050
Resource rent taxes(a) 1,463   1,710 3,100 3,500   4,210 5,300
Income taxation receipts 227,714   236,100 258,160 277,650   303,760 326,360
Sales taxes                
Goods and services tax 45,861   47,918 50,443 53,019   56,009 58,890
Wine equalisation tax 708   720 770 810   860 910
Luxury car tax 435   430 400 360   390 420
Total sales taxes 47,004   49,068 51,613 54,189   57,259 60,220
Excise duty                
Petrol 6,036   6,000 5,900 5,850   5,900 6,000
Diesel 8,231   8,600 9,100 9,200   9,400 9,700
Beer 1,938   1,950 2,020 2,090   2,210 2,330
Other excisable products(b) 9,340   9,020 9,540 9,710   9,840 10,130
of which: Other excisable beverages(c) 909   900 960 1,000   1,050 1,110
Total excise duty receipts 25,545   25,570 26,560 26,850   27,350 28,160
Customs duty                
Textiles, clothing and footwear 655   680 710 560   410 440
Passenger motor vehicles 805   920 920 990   1,060 1,140
Excise-like goods(b) 4,307   5,660 5,850 6,010   6,220 6,510
Other imports 1,440   1,530 1,600 1,670   1,790 1,910
less: Refunds and drawbacks 212   330 260 260   260 260
Total customs duty receipts 6,996   8,460 8,820 8,970   9,220 9,740
Carbon pricing mechanism -   4,160 6,265 6,395   4,645 3,395
Other indirect taxation                
Agricultural levies 421   463 443 434   440 446
Other taxes 2,263   2,476 2,992 3,263   3,136 3,173
Total other indirect taxation receipts 2,684   2,939 3,436 3,697   3,575 3,619
Indirect taxation receipts 82,229   90,197 96,694 100,101   102,049 105,134
Taxation receipts 309,943   326,297 354,854 377,751   405,809 431,494
Sales of goods and services 7,778   9,043 8,639 8,409   8,562 8,726
Interest received 4,267   3,674 4,074 4,055   4,575 4,837
Dividends 1,789   3,186 2,526 2,317   2,520 2,571
Other non-taxation receipts 6,098   8,211 5,901 8,638   7,464 6,015
Non-taxation receipts 19,931   24,113 21,140 23,419   23,121 22,149
Total receipts 329,874   350,410 375,993 401,171   428,931 453,642
Memorandum:                
Capital gains tax(d) 6,000   6,600 8,100 11,100   13,600 15,900
Medicare levy receipts 9,119   9,720 10,300 14,190   15,230 16,200

(a) Comprises gross receipts from the PRRT and MRRT. Net receipts from the MRRT are expected to be $0.2 billion in 2012‑13, $0.7 billion in 2013‑14, $1.0 billion in 2014‑15, $1.4 billion in 2015‑16 and $2.2 billion in 2016‑17 which represent the net receipt impact across different revenue heads. These include offsetting reductions in company tax (through deductibility) and interactions with other taxes.

(b) Tobacco estimates are not separately reported due to taxpayer confidentiality. See Budget Statement 9, note 3, footnote (b) for more information.

(c) Other excisable beverages are those not exceeding 10 per cent by volume of alcohol (excluding beer, brandy and wine).

(d) Capital gains tax is part of other individuals, companies and superannuation funds tax. The 2011‑12 reported figure is an estimate.

Revenue variations since the 2012‑13 MYEFO

The revenue estimates are the accrual accounting equivalent of the cash‑based receipts estimates. Changes in revenue are generally driven by the same factors — policy as well as parameter variation — as receipts. Where the revenue and receipts estimates tend to vary is in terms of the timing of their impacts.

Table 8 provides a reconciliation of the Budget's revenue estimates with those at the 2012‑13 MYEFO.

Table 8: Reconciliation of total Australian Government general government revenue estimates from the 2012‑13 MYEFO
  Estimates   Projections
  2012‑13
$m
2013‑14
$m
2014‑15
$m
  2015‑16
$m
Revenue at 2012‑13 MYEFO 373,739 403,161 421,871   446,438
Changes from 2012‑13 MYEFO to 2013‑14 Budget          
Effect of policy decisions(a) -36 111 5,533   9,766
Effect of parameter and other variations -13,742 -15,523 -15,792   -18,108
Total variations -13,778 -15,412 -10,260   -8,342
Revenue at 2013‑14 Budget 359,961 387,749 411,612   438,097

(a) Excludes secondary impacts on public debt interest of policy decisions and offsets from the contingency reserve for decisions taken.

Since the 2012‑13 MYEFO, total revenue has been revised down by $15.4 billion in 2012‑13 and by $10.3 billion in 2013‑14. The factors affecting downward revisions to tax receipts are also at play with regards to revenue write‑downs.

Table 9: Australian Government general government (accrual) revenue
  Actual    Estimates   Projections
   2011‑12
$m
   2012‑13
$m
2013‑14
$m
2014‑15
$m
   2015‑16
$m
2016‑17
$m
Individuals' and other withholding taxes                
Gross income tax withholding 143,978   151,660 164,660 178,100   192,120 204,820
Gross other individuals 32,992   35,940 37,490 41,580   46,640 51,580
less: Refunds 25,537   26,750 26,800 28,350   30,250 32,100
Total individuals' and other withholding tax 151,433   160,850 175,350 191,330   208,510 224,300
Fringe benefits tax 3,964   3,890 4,320 4,740   5,080 5,390
Company tax 66,726   68,132 73,969 74,860   80,666 85,213
Superannuation funds 7,852   7,800 8,480 10,210   12,850 14,270
Resource rent taxes(a) 1,293   1,740 3,420 3,530   4,180 5,340
Income taxation revenue 231,268   242,412 265,539 284,670   311,286 334,513
Sales taxes                
Goods and services tax 48,849   50,220 53,080 55,760   58,920 61,830
Wine equalisation tax 716   730 780 820   870 920
Luxury car tax 440   430 400 360   390 420
Total sales taxes 50,004   51,380 54,260 56,940   60,180 63,170
Excise duty                
Petrol 6,016   6,000 5,790 5,870   5,920 6,000
Diesel 8,203   8,610 8,920 9,230   9,430 9,710
Beer 1,932   1,950 1,980 2,100   2,220 2,330
Other excisable products(b) 9,329   9,030 9,360 9,750   9,880 10,130
of which: Other excisable beverages(c) 906   900 960 1,000   1,050 1,110
Total excise duty revenue 25,480   25,590 26,050 26,950   27,450 28,170
Customs duty                
Textiles, clothing and footwear 655   680 710 560   410 440
Passenger motor vehicles 903   920 920 990   1,060 1,140
Excise-like goods(b) 4,307   5,660 5,850 6,010   6,220 6,510
Other imports 1,441   1,540 1,610 1,670   1,790 1,910
less: Refunds and drawbacks 202   330 260 260   260 260
Total customs duty revenue 7,105   8,470 8,830 8,970   9,220 9,740
Carbon pricing mechanism -   7,540 8,340 9,270   4,090 6,110
Other indirect taxation                
Agricultural levies 421   463 443 434   440 446
Other taxes 2,501   2,871 3,202 3,372   3,309 3,446
Total other indirect taxation revenue 2,922   3,335 3,646 3,806   3,748 3,892
Indirect taxation revenue 85,511   96,315 101,126 105,936   104,688 111,082
Taxation revenue 316,779   338,727 366,664 390,606   415,974 445,595
Sales of goods and services 8,106   8,757 8,577 8,443   8,614 8,776
Interest 4,617   3,764 4,313 4,477   4,980 5,448
Dividends 2,662   2,429 2,426 2,265   2,476 2,604
Other non-taxation revenue 5,945   6,284 5,768 5,820   6,052 6,146
Non-taxation revenue 21,330   21,234 21,085 21,006   22,122 22,974
Total revenue 338,109   359,961 387,749 411,612   438,097 468,569
Memorandum:                
Capital gains tax(d) 6,000   6,600 8,100 11,100   13,600 15,900
Medicare levy revenue 9,119   9,720 10,300 14,190   15,230 16,200

(a) Comprises gross revenue from the PRRT and MRRT. Net revenue from the MRRT are expected to be $0.2 billion in 2012‑13, $0.7 billion in 2013‑14, $1.0 billion in 2014‑15, $1.4 billion in 2015‑16 and $2.2 billion in 2016‑17 which represent the net revenue impact across different revenue heads. These include offsetting reductions in company tax (through deductibility) and interactions with other taxes.

(b) Tobacco estimates are not separately reported due to taxpayer confidentiality. See Budget Statement 9, note 3, footnote (b) for more information.

(c) Other excisable beverages are those not exceeding 10 per cent by volume of alcohol (excluding beer, brandy and wine).

(d) Capital gains tax is part of other individuals, companies and superannuation funds tax. The 2011‑12 reported figure is an estimate.

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