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Australian Government Coat of Arms

Budget | 2014-15

Budget 2014-15
Australian Government Coat of Arms, Budget 2014-15

Budget Paper 1 — Statement 2

Chart 1: Real GDP growth

This chart shows annual real GDP growth for the Australian economy from 1994-95 to 2015-16, along with the 20 year average annual growth rate.

Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0 and Treasury.

This chart shows annual real GDP growth for the Australian economy from 1994-95 to 2015-16, along with the 20 year average annual growth rate.

Data - Chart 1: Real GDP growth
X Values Real GDP growth 20 year average
1994-95 3.70 3.39
1995-96 3.90 3.39
1996-97 3.90 3.39
1997-98 4.40 3.39
1998-99 5.00 3.39
1999-00 3.90 3.39
2000-01 1.90 3.39
2001-02 3.90 3.39
2002-03 3.10 3.39
2003-04 4.20 3.39
2004-05 3.20 3.39
2005-06 3.00 3.39
2006-07 3.80 3.39
2007-08 3.70 3.39
2008-09 1.70 3.39
2009-10 2.00 3.39
2010-11 2.20 3.39
2011-12 3.60 3.39
2012-13 2.60 3.39
2013-14 2.75  
2014-15 2.50  
2015-16 3.00  

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Charts 2 and 3: Leading indicators of dwelling investment

Two charts are shown side-by-side. This is the first chart that shows houses approved 3 months ahead and investment in houses over the period from the March quarter 1994 until March quarter 2014.

Two charts are shown side-by-side. This is the second chart that shows units approved 6 months ahead and investment in units over the period from the June quarter of 1994 until the June quarter of 2014.

Source: ABS cat. no. 8731.0 and unpublished ABS data.

Two charts are shown side-by-side. The first shows units approved 6 months ahead and investment in units over the period from the June quarter of 1994 until the June quarter of 2014. The second shows houses approved 3 months ahead and investment in houses over the period from March quarter 1994 until March quarter 2014.

Data - Charts 2: Leading indicators of dwelling investment
X Values Investment in units Unit building approvals advanced 6 months
Jun-94 1740.63 1930.30
Sep-94 1843.13 2030.10
Dec-94 1844.85 2367.00
Mar-95 1934.03 2790.70
Jun-95 1883.10 2274.60
Sep-95 1771.74 2043.30
Dec-95 1608.81 1886.20
Mar-96 1509.45 1871.70
Jun-96 1382.40 1511.90
Sep-96 1522.55 1328.50
Dec-96 1521.00 1692.80
Mar-97 1630.73 1639.40
Jun-97 1652.49 1785.20
Sep-97 1830.20 2072.50
Dec-97 1929.95 1680.40
Mar-98 1996.35 2134.10
Jun-98 2149.97 2089.30
Sep-98 2197.00 1935.40
Dec-98 2381.91 2378.50
Mar-99 2309.97 1977.70
Jun-99 2243.48 2384.60
Sep-99 2223.92 2039.70
Dec-99 2341.27 2259.20
Mar-00 2629.16 2515.40
Jun-00 2863.89 2288.20
Sep-00 2462.55 2829.10
Dec-00 2013.98 2306.50
Mar-01 1980.83 1701.70
Jun-01 1929.61 2117.20
Sep-01 2148.79 1935.30
Dec-01 2385.60 2103.40
Mar-02 2605.28 2900.40
Jun-02 2824.40 2528.90
Sep-02 2873.21 2405.20
Dec-02 3090.49 2856.90
Mar-03 3243.78 3056.90
Jun-03 3140.46 4780.20
Sep-03 3179.46 3369.40
Dec-03 3376.70 2972.80
Mar-04 3418.06 3415.60
Jun-04 3276.26 3110.40
Sep-04 3414.97 3569.60
Dec-04 3348.50 3469.10
Mar-05 3293.52 2928.70
Jun-05 3429.70 3019.80
Sep-05 3142.44 3158.40
Dec-05 3021.05 2989.50
Mar-06 2961.09 2649.90
Jun-06 3077.29 2377.70
Sep-06 2719.64 2554.80
Dec-06 2814.25 2581.60
Mar-07 2750.14 2615.10
Jun-07 2678.21 2574.00
Sep-07 2729.06 2867.50
Dec-07 2648.39 2865.90
Mar-08 2686.85 2810.80
Jun-08 2657.40 3623.90
Sep-08 2785.36 3289.50
Dec-08 2839.29 3226.00
Mar-09 2828.24 2869.60
Jun-09 2865.22 2586.80
Sep-09 2646.71 1999.10
Dec-09 2502.28 1801.70
Mar-10 2458.67 2461.30
Jun-10 2604.96 2571.10
Sep-10 2887.41 3575.40
Dec-10 2854.99 4001.20
Mar-11 3148.13 3691.20
Jun-11 3073.85 4043.40
Sep-11 3087.32 3550.10
Dec-11 3309.65 3337.20
Mar-12 3262.64 3785.80
Jun-12 3348.76 2584.40
Sep-12 3517.92 2936.10
Dec-12 3597.56 4392.30
Mar-13 3890.50 3695.50
Jun-13 4185.87 3987.20
Sep-13 4227.52 3841.60
Dec-13 4160.81 3990.40
Mar-14   4742.00
Jun-14   5917.10
Data - Charts 3: Leading indicators of dwelling investment
X Values Investment in houses House building approvals advanced 3 months
Mar-94 5354.17 5514.40
Jun-94 5759.05 5807.00
Sep-94 5941.79 6165.70
Dec-94 5776.13 5955.30
Mar-95 5435.40 5600.70
Jun-95 4939.57 4972.40
Sep-95 5068.00 4532.50
Dec-95 4543.24 4279.60
Mar-96 4427.72 4120.00
Jun-96 4267.05 4152.00
Sep-96 4288.75 4138.10
Dec-96 4590.34 4397.30
Mar-97 4767.87 4465.60
Jun-97 5047.63 4701.20
Sep-97 5404.63 5136.70
Dec-97 5777.84 5314.70
Mar-98 5818.09 5449.40
Jun-98 5828.32 5707.50
Sep-98 5907.97 5934.60
Dec-98 5926.68 5700.80
Mar-99 6009.35 5597.30
Jun-99 6174.51 5863.80
Sep-99 6134.82 6219.10
Dec-99 6457.09 6787.30
Mar-00 7252.22 7455.60
Jun-00 7873.10 7624.30
Sep-00 5911.91 5477.30
Dec-00 4812.90 3692.70
Mar-01 4711.97 3981.20
Jun-01 4887.42 4279.70
Sep-01 5594.54 5128.30
Dec-01 6082.81 6388.30
Mar-02 6440.62 6542.40
Jun-02 7120.82 6809.90
Sep-02 6990.73 6742.10
Dec-02 7139.72 6899.80
Mar-03 7099.67 6542.80
Jun-03 6578.64 6556.20
Sep-03 6729.18 6967.00
Dec-03 7157.42 7218.30
Mar-04 7448.20 7522.60
Jun-04 7316.03 7328.80
Sep-04 7253.95 7016.00
Dec-04 7131.88 6698.30
Mar-05 6963.54 6529.00
Jun-05 7287.69 6616.90
Sep-05 7410.80 6866.00
Dec-05 7110.91 6467.30
Mar-06 7003.28 6471.40
Jun-06 7167.39 6882.90
Sep-06 7030.75 6836.20
Dec-06 7109.69 7088.60
Mar-07 7732.90 6958.80
Jun-07 7407.35 7052.70
Sep-07 7280.04 7175.80
Dec-07 7387.54 7374.90
Mar-08 7719.47 7685.10
Jun-08 7676.90 7526.90
Sep-08 7559.12 7173.00
Dec-08 7508.57 6719.70
Mar-09 7093.84 6112.70
Jun-09 6980.02 5879.70
Sep-09 7425.46 6574.40
Dec-09 7511.12 7237.10
Mar-10 7388.36 7837.20
Jun-10 7876.69 7871.70
Sep-10 7727.44 7610.40
Dec-10 7409.42 7179.10
Mar-11 7320.59 7009.70
Jun-11 7467.14 6758.10
Sep-11 7087.22 6552.80
Dec-11 6877.40 6356.40
Mar-12 6881.06 6082.60
Jun-12 6677.29 6331.80
Sep-12 6890.73 5949.00
Dec-12 7149.56 6119.90
Mar-13 7093.56 6163.80
Jun-13 6831.58 6218.60
Sep-13 6831.35 6315.30
Dec-13 6886.90 6590.90
Mar-14   6725.40

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Chart 4: Spending on major resources projects

This chart shows the evolution of Treasury’s major project profile which is the sum of investment in existing and planned resource projects greater than AUD2 billion, weighted by the probability of going ahead. Over the period 2010-11 to 2016-17, spending on major projects is divided into LNG, Iron ore and Coal, and other.

Note: Treasury’s major resources projects profile is the sum of spending on existing and planned resources projects greater than $2 billion, weighted by their probability of going ahead.

Source: Treasury.

This chart shows the evolution of Treasury’s major project profile which is the sum of investment in existing and planned resource projects greater than AUD2 billion, weighted by the probability of going ahead. Over the period 2010-11 to 2016-17, spending on major projects is divided into LNG, Iron ore and Coal, and other.

Data - Chart 4: Spending on major resources projects
X Values LNG Iron ore and Coal Other
2010-11 15.89 9.05 5.41
2011-12 28.77 19.70 6.24
2012-13 42.02 23.76 2.10
2013-14 52.80 11.93 1.43
2014-15 41.41 7.44 0.92
2015-16 22.22 2.94 0.46
2016-17 9.68 2.09 0.00

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Chart 5: Contributions to growth in business investment

This chart shows contribution by sector to growth in business investment from 1987-88 to 2015-16. Contributions are shown for new business investment, non-resource investment and resources investment.

Source: ABS cat. no. 5204.0, 5206.0 and Treasury.

This chart shows contribution by sector to growth in business investment from 1987-88 to 2015-16. Contributions are shown for new business investment, non-resource investment and resources investment.

Data - Chart 5: Contributions to growth in business investment
X Values Resources investment Non-resources investment Total business investment
1987-88 0.55 14.67 15.22
1988-89 -0.01 11.50 11.49
1989-90 -0.56 2.03 1.47
1990-91 0.71 -14.24 -13.53
1991-92 -1.26 -8.51 -9.77
1992-93 5.69 1.54 7.23
1993-94 0.13 6.73 6.86
1994-95 3.05 16.23 19.28
1995-96 3.16 7.94 11.10
1996-97 2.80 6.98 9.78
1997-98 4.30 5.03 9.34
1998-99 -3.69 7.92 4.23
1999-00 -5.42 12.40 6.98
2000-01 -1.50 0.42 -1.07
2001-02 1.98 3.94 5.92
2002-03 3.03 12.67 15.70
2003-04 1.64 11.23 12.87
2004-05 1.41 9.67 11.07
2005-06 8.15 7.50 15.65
2006-07 3.50 4.29 7.79
2007-08 5.09 7.71 12.81
2008-09 4.35 -0.68 3.68
2009-10 -0.43 -3.88 -4.31
2010-11 5.92 2.68 8.61
2011-12 17.17 4.96 22.13
2012-13 4.95 1.17 6.12
2013-14 -2.58 -1.32 -3.90
2014-15 -5.76 0.48 -5.28
2015-16 -8.39 4.70 -3.69

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Charts 6 and 7: Bulk commodity export prices

Two charts are shown side-by-side. This is the first chart that shows historical and forecast metallurgical coal and thermal coal unit export prices over the period of June 1998 to June 2016.

Two charts are shown side-by-side. This is the second chart that shows the historical and forecast iron ore unit export price over the period June 1998 to June 2016.

Source: Based on ABS data and Treasury. Export prices differ from the more-widely quoted spot prices. Export prices reflect the actual price foreigners pay for our exports and reflect the quality of the resource being provided (such as the iron ore content), long-term contracts and exchange rate movements.

Two charts are shown side-by-side. The first shows historical and forecast metallurgical coal and thermal coal unit export prices over the period of June 1998 to June 2016. The second shows the historical and forecast iron ore unit export price over the period June 1998 to June 2016.

Data - Charts 6: Bulk commodity export prices
X Values Metallurgical coal Thermal coal
Sep-97 63.69 46.20
Dec-97 68.59 48.02
Mar-98 70.51 48.97
Jun-98 70.68 49.83
Sep-98 70.89 48.38
Dec-98 67.26 44.90
Mar-99 64.27 44.09
Jun-99 54.49 41.40
Sep-99 52.31 40.02
Dec-99 52.67 38.26
Mar-00 53.28 38.41
Jun-00 54.99 40.52
Sep-00 56.33 42.62
Dec-00 61.60 45.92
Mar-01 61.52 47.50
Jun-01 70.17 55.39
Sep-01 76.26 59.58
Dec-01 77.79 60.10
Mar-02 76.87 57.38
Jun-02 72.12 53.53
Sep-02 73.15 50.12
Dec-02 73.07 45.86
Mar-03 68.13 42.98
Jun-03 62.16 39.10
Sep-03 59.19 38.11
Dec-03 53.74 35.67
Mar-04 51.53 38.29
Jun-04 66.68 51.50
Sep-04 73.55 57.33
Dec-04 74.07 58.12
Mar-05 74.21 59.55
Jun-05 118.94 63.41
Sep-05 136.29 66.64
Dec-05 146.24 66.85
Mar-06 144.46 64.00
Jun-06 135.30 62.96
Sep-06 122.98 62.16
Dec-06 117.59 60.24
Mar-07 114.27 60.06
Jun-07 101.00 59.94
Sep-07 98.43 62.56
Dec-07 94.28 64.61
Mar-08 100.20 73.60
Jun-08 179.86 95.00
Sep-08 287.45 117.00
Dec-08 388.84 162.80
Mar-09 322.25 144.15
Jun-09 187.49 98.68
Sep-09 147.20 90.58
Dec-09 135.61 80.82
Mar-10 138.28 83.58
Jun-10 194.45 96.30
Sep-10 213.61 98.47
Dec-10 189.92 91.60
Mar-11 196.24 98.88
Jun-11 245.50 99.36
Sep-11 250.05 106.93
Dec-11 234.18 113.23
Mar-12 192.69 107.93
Jun-12 185.40 103.44
Sep-12 170.24 94.71
Dec-12 135.34 89.12
Mar-13 138.52 85.98
Jun-13 142.42 86.90
Sep-13 135.57 90.00
Dec-13 137.09 86.21
Mar-14 129.47 90.91
Jun-14 117.19 83.04
Sep-14 122.26 81.24
Dec-14 126.11 79.74
Mar-15 126.60 79.74
Jun-15 126.60 79.74
Sep-15 128.59 79.74
Dec-15 130.94 79.74
Mar-16 131.29 79.74
Jun-16 131.29 79.74
Charts 7: Bulk commodity export prices
X Values Iron ores & concentrates
Sep-97 24.18
Dec-97 26.46
Mar-98 27.08
Jun-98 29.42
Sep-98 30.48
Dec-98 29.91
Mar-99 28.73
Jun-99 24.66
Sep-99 24.71
Dec-99 24.69
Mar-00 24.63
Jun-00 27.59
Sep-00 27.98
Dec-00 31.83
Mar-01 31.53
Jun-01 33.88
Sep-01 33.80
Dec-01 34.46
Mar-02 32.90
Jun-02 31.16
Sep-02 31.23
Dec-02 30.52
Mar-03 28.58
Jun-03 27.55
Sep-03 27.01
Dec-03 25.67
Mar-04 24.49
Jun-04 31.08
Sep-04 31.17
Dec-04 30.08
Mar-05 30.55
Jun-05 49.41
Sep-05 50.29
Dec-05 52.88
Mar-06 53.86
Jun-06 58.16
Sep-06 60.22
Dec-06 59.76
Mar-07 59.92
Jun-07 61.38
Sep-07 59.89
Dec-07 62.33
Mar-08 67.48
Jun-08 87.08
Sep-08 109.05
Dec-08 126.56
Mar-09 113.48
Jun-09 79.75
Sep-09 73.07
Dec-09 71.29
Mar-10 73.39
Jun-10 132.27
Sep-10 143.69
Dec-10 131.21
Mar-11 143.80
Jun-11 153.41
Sep-11 152.03
Dec-11 136.13
Mar-12 118.63
Jun-12 126.00
Sep-12 102.58
Dec-12 98.76
Mar-13 115.95
Jun-13 115.89
Sep-13 122.07
Dec-13 127.29
Mar-14 113.70
Jun-14 102.79
Sep-14 96.99
Dec-14 95.04
Mar-15 93.57
Jun-15 92.13
Sep-15 90.87
Dec-15 89.62
Mar-16 88.36
Jun-16 87.11

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Chart 8: Terms of trade

This chart shows the historical and forecast level of Australia’s terms of trade over the period June 1996 to June 2016.

Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0 and Treasury.

This chart shows the historical and forecast level of Australia’s terms of trade over the period June 1996 to June 2016.

Data - Chart 8: Terms of trade
X Values Terms of trade
Jun-96 52.17
Sep-96 52.30
Dec-96 52.41
Mar-97 52.52
Jun-97 52.95
Sep-97 52.92
Dec-97 52.61
Mar-98 51.74
Jun-98 51.55
Sep-98 49.91
Dec-98 49.35
Mar-99 49.89
Jun-99 49.62
Sep-99 50.30
Dec-99 51.24
Mar-00 52.91
Jun-00 52.04
Sep-00 52.77
Dec-00 52.49
Mar-01 52.51
Jun-01 52.25
Sep-01 52.95
Dec-01 52.81
Mar-02 53.95
Jun-02 53.33
Sep-02 53.48
Dec-02 53.92
Mar-03 54.43
Jun-03 54.59
Sep-03 55.68
Dec-03 56.85
Mar-04 58.96
Jun-04 60.64
Sep-04 61.22
Dec-04 61.92
Mar-05 63.69
Jun-05 67.91
Sep-05 68.61
Dec-05 69.95
Mar-06 71.08
Jun-06 72.44
Sep-06 73.32
Dec-06 75.08
Mar-07 76.62
Jun-07 77.12
Sep-07 76.43
Dec-07 77.42
Mar-08 78.76
Jun-08 86.76
Sep-08 92.18
Dec-08 90.29
Mar-09 84.14
Jun-09 77.07
Sep-09 75.49
Dec-09 78.28
Mar-10 82.23
Jun-10 93.45
Sep-10 94.51
Dec-10 96.59
Mar-11 101.38
Jun-11 105.34
Sep-11 106.33
Dec-11 101.27
Mar-12 96.42
Jun-12 95.80
Sep-12 90.69
Dec-12 89.17
Mar-13 90.40
Jun-13 90.34
Sep-13 87.52
Dec-13 88.06
Mar-14 84.08
Jun-14 82.70
Sep-14 80.95
Dec-14 80.24
Mar-15 79.48
Jun-15 78.50
Sep-15 78.70
Dec-15 78.63
Mar-16 78.36
Jun-16 78.15

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Chart 9: Participation rate

This chart shows the actual or seasonally adjusted labour force participation rate from March 1978 to March 2013. Running through the participation rate is the trend labour force participation rate.

Source: ABS cat. no. 6202.0 and Treasury. Trend participation is derived from a disaggregated analysis of age and gender specific participation rates as outlined in Treasury Working Paper 2014-02.

This chart shows the actual or seasonally adjusted labour force participation rate from March 1978 to March 2013. Running through the participation rate is the trend labour force participation rate.

Data - Chart 9: Participation rate
X Values Participation rate (Seasonally adjusted) Participation rate (Trend)
Dec-78 60.80 60.97
Mar-79 60.72 60.95
Jun-79 60.65 60.93
Sep-79 60.66 60.92
Dec-79 60.99 60.91
Mar-80 61.11 60.89
Jun-80 61.38 60.88
Sep-80 61.54 60.86
Dec-80 61.28 60.85
Mar-81 61.19 60.83
Jun-81 61.12 60.81
Sep-81 61.27 60.79
Dec-81 60.93 60.77
Mar-82 61.03 60.76
Jun-82 60.79 60.74
Sep-82 60.62 60.73
Dec-82 60.88 60.72
Mar-83 60.51 60.72
Jun-83 60.38 60.73
Sep-83 60.50 60.74
Dec-83 60.40 60.76
Mar-84 60.44 60.79
Jun-84 60.71 60.84
Sep-84 60.60 60.89
Dec-84 60.45 60.95
Mar-85 60.61 61.02
Jun-85 60.62 61.10
Sep-85 60.94 61.19
Dec-85 61.17 61.28
Mar-86 61.60 61.38
Jun-86 61.98 61.49
Sep-86 61.99 61.60
Dec-86 62.00 61.71
Mar-87 61.99 61.82
Jun-87 61.95 61.93
Sep-87 61.99 62.04
Dec-87 61.90 62.15
Mar-88 62.37 62.26
Jun-88 62.47 62.36
Sep-88 62.21 62.46
Dec-88 62.43 62.55
Mar-89 62.77 62.64
Jun-89 63.09 62.72
Sep-89 63.32 62.79
Dec-89 63.41 62.85
Mar-90 63.52 62.90
Jun-90 63.81 62.95
Sep-90 63.95 62.98
Dec-90 63.75 63.00
Mar-91 63.42 63.02
Jun-91 63.40 63.02
Sep-91 62.93 63.03
Dec-91 62.82 63.03
Mar-92 62.95 63.02
Jun-92 62.84 63.02
Sep-92 62.99 63.02
Dec-92 62.70 63.02
Mar-93 62.45 63.02
Jun-93 62.26 63.02
Sep-93 62.36 63.03
Dec-93 62.88 63.04
Mar-94 62.81 63.05
Jun-94 62.76 63.07
Sep-94 63.09 63.09
Dec-94 63.05 63.10
Mar-95 63.26 63.12
Jun-95 63.52 63.13
Sep-95 63.62 63.14
Dec-95 63.76 63.14
Mar-96 63.64 63.15
Jun-96 63.62 63.14
Sep-96 63.59 63.14
Dec-96 63.40 63.13
Mar-97 63.37 63.11
Jun-97 63.08 63.10
Sep-97 62.95 63.08
Dec-97 63.05 63.07
Mar-98 62.93 63.05
Jun-98 62.99 63.04
Sep-98 63.13 63.03
Dec-98 62.93 63.02
Mar-99 62.71 63.01
Jun-99 62.61 63.01
Sep-99 62.75 63.02
Dec-99 62.96 63.02
Mar-00 62.91 63.03
Jun-00 63.16 63.05
Sep-00 63.44 63.07
Dec-00 63.03 63.09
Mar-01 62.97 63.12
Jun-01 63.48 63.15
Sep-01 63.41 63.19
Dec-01 63.43 63.23
Mar-02 63.34 63.27
Jun-02 63.17 63.32
Sep-02 63.35 63.37
Dec-02 63.58 63.43
Mar-03 63.88 63.49
Jun-03 63.57 63.55
Sep-03 63.42 63.62
Dec-03 63.48 63.69
Mar-04 63.28 63.77
Jun-04 63.39 63.85
Sep-04 63.43 63.93
Dec-04 63.72 64.02
Mar-05 64.10 64.12
Jun-05 64.44 64.21
Sep-05 64.55 64.31
Dec-05 64.51 64.41
Mar-06 64.46 64.50
Jun-06 64.67 64.60
Sep-06 64.98 64.69
Dec-06 64.87 64.78
Mar-07 64.95 64.86
Jun-07 65.09 64.94
Sep-07 65.24 65.01
Dec-07 65.42 65.08
Mar-08 65.43 65.14
Jun-08 65.56 65.19
Sep-08 65.52 65.23
Dec-08 65.42 65.27
Mar-09 65.63 65.30
Jun-09 65.52 65.32
Sep-09 65.31 65.34
Dec-09 65.28 65.35
Mar-10 65.26 65.36
Jun-10 65.19 65.36
Sep-10 65.41 65.35
Dec-10 65.69 65.34
Mar-11 65.55 65.33
Jun-11 65.33 65.31
Sep-11 65.45 65.31
Dec-11 65.30 65.30
Mar-12 65.22 65.30
Jun-12 65.18 65.30
Sep-12 65.12 65.30
Dec-12 65.06 65.29
Mar-13 65.14 65.28
Jun-13 65.10 65.26
Sep-13 64.87 65.26
Dec-13 64.67 65.26
Mar-14 64.75 65.26

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Chart 10: Unemployment rate and participation rate

This chart shows the labour force participation rate and the unemployment rate from June 2006 to June 2016. The chart shows that the participation rate is expected to decline and that the unemployment rate is forecast to increase over the forecast period.

Source ABS cat. no. 6202.0 and Treasury.

This chart shows the labour force participation rate and the unemployment rate from June 2006 to June 2016. The chart shows that the participation rate is expected to decline and that the unemployment rate is forecast to increase over the forecast period.

Data - Chart 10: Unemployment rate and participation rate
X Values Participation rate Unemployment rate
Jun-06 64.67 4.84
Sep-06 64.98 4.69
Dec-06 64.87 4.54
Mar-07 64.95 4.54
Jun-07 65.09 4.31
Sep-07 65.24 4.28
Dec-07 65.42 4.37
Mar-08 65.43 4.08
Jun-08 65.56 4.24
Sep-08 65.52 4.21
Dec-08 65.42 4.45
Mar-09 65.63 5.30
Jun-09 65.52 5.70
Sep-09 65.31 5.71
Dec-09 65.28 5.56
Mar-10 65.26 5.33
Jun-10 65.19 5.27
Sep-10 65.41 5.14
Dec-10 65.69 5.08
Mar-11 65.55 4.98
Jun-11 65.33 4.95
Sep-11 65.45 5.21
Dec-11 65.30 5.19
Mar-12 65.22 5.15
Jun-12 65.18 5.11
Sep-12 65.12 5.28
Dec-12 65.06 5.35
Mar-13 65.14 5.48
Jun-13 65.10 5.61
Sep-13 64.87 5.73
Dec-13 64.67 5.81
Mar-14 64.75 5.95
Jun-14 64.75 6.00
Sep-14    
Dec-14    
Mar-15    
Jun-15 64.50 6.25
Sep-15    
Dec-15    
Mar-16    
Jun-16 64.50 6.25
Sep-16    
Dec-16    
Mar-17    
Jun-17 64.75 5.75
Sep-17    
Dec-17    
Mar-18    
Jun-18 64.75 5.75

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Chart 11: Nominal GDP growth

Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0 and Treasury.

This chart shows annual nominal GDP growth for the Australian economy from 1994-95 to 2015-16, along with the 20 year average annual growth rate. It shows that nominal GDP growth is expected to remain below its 20 year average over the forecast period.

Data - Chart 11: Nominal GDP growth
X Values Nominal GDP 20-year average
1994-95 6.27 6.36
1995-96 6.73 6.36
1996-97 5.22 6.36
1997-98 5.77 6.36
1998-99 5.35 6.36
1999-00 6.54 6.36
2000-01 6.72 6.36
2001-02 6.84 6.36
2002-03 6.29 6.36
2003-04 7.58 6.36
2004-05 7.05 6.36
2005-06 8.19 6.36
2006-07 8.94 6.36
2007-08 8.40 6.36
2008-09 6.76 6.36
2009-10 2.99 6.36
2010-11 8.51 6.36
2011-12 5.64 6.36
2012-13 2.48 6.36
2013-14 4.00  
2014-15 3.00  
2015-16 4.75  

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Chart 12: Output and unemployment gap estimates

This chart plots projections of the output and unemployment gaps from June 1980 to June 2025. The chart shows the gaps closing from June 2016 to June 2021.

Source: Treasury.

This chart plots projections of the output and unemployment gaps from June 1980 to June 2025. The chart shows the gaps closing from June 2016 to June 2021.

Data - Chart 12: Output and unemployment gap estimates
X Values GDP cycle (LHS) Unemployment rate cycle (RHS - Inverted)
Jun-80 0.07 0.19
Sep-80 -0.10 0.05
Dec-80 0.87 -0.16
Mar-81 0.46 -0.39
Jun-81 1.16 -0.63
Sep-81 2.42 -0.28
Dec-81 1.20 -0.18
Mar-82 -0.45 0.10
Jun-82 -0.42 0.51
Sep-82 -1.90 1.11
Dec-82 -4.40 2.91
Mar-83 -6.22 3.88
Jun-83 -7.32 4.57
Sep-83 -5.22 4.67
Dec-83 -4.78 4.14
Mar-84 -3.38 3.84
Jun-84 -3.33 3.60
Sep-84 -3.47 3.26
Dec-84 -3.27 3.18
Mar-85 -2.79 3.15
Jun-85 -1.55 3.07
Sep-85 -1.40 2.74
Dec-85 -2.25 2.45
Mar-86 -2.57 2.48
Jun-86 -3.53 2.31
Sep-86 -4.04 2.71
Dec-86 -3.47 2.79
Mar-87 -3.36 2.72
Jun-87 -2.57 2.55
Sep-87 -1.72 2.32
Dec-87 -0.77 2.17
Mar-88 -0.97 1.70
Jun-88 -1.26 1.65
Sep-88 -1.11 0.94
Dec-88 -0.69 0.67
Mar-89 -0.33 0.47
Jun-89 0.89 0.03
Sep-89 1.08 -0.14
Dec-89 0.58 -0.29
Mar-90 0.72 0.07
Jun-90 0.31 0.32
Sep-90 -1.15 1.02
Dec-90 -1.09 1.69
Mar-91 -3.32 2.49
Jun-91 -4.28 3.30
Sep-91 -4.72 3.54
Dec-91 -5.15 3.75
Mar-92 -4.88 3.89
Jun-92 -4.95 4.08
Sep-92 -4.75 4.12
Dec-92 -3.74 4.38
Mar-93 -3.45 4.12
Jun-93 -3.62 4.05
Sep-93 -4.35 3.97
Dec-93 -3.24 3.86
Mar-94 -2.30 3.40
Jun-94 -2.05 2.83
Sep-94 -1.94 2.34
Dec-94 -2.28 1.82
Mar-95 -2.67 1.54
Jun-95 -2.71 1.15
Sep-95 -1.84 1.08
Dec-95 -2.25 1.09
Mar-96 -1.35 1.14
Jun-96 -1.90 1.17
Sep-96 -1.56 1.34
Dec-96 -1.65 1.40
Mar-97 -2.37 1.43
Jun-97 -0.52 1.35
Sep-97 -1.46 1.27
Dec-97 -0.81 0.94
Mar-98 -0.54 0.82
Jun-98 -0.67 0.72
Sep-98 0.20 0.81
Dec-98 0.86 0.45
Mar-99 0.55 0.18
Jun-99 0.30 -0.01
Sep-99 0.31 0.07
Dec-99 1.16 -0.18
Mar-00 1.10 -0.12
Jun-00 0.99 -0.48
Sep-00 0.24 -0.76
Dec-00 -0.95 -0.55
Mar-01 -0.54 -0.26
Jun-01 -0.53 0.26
Sep-01 -0.37 0.36
Dec-01 -0.07 0.52
Mar-02 -0.09 0.24
Jun-02 0.60 0.03
Sep-02 0.24 -0.06
Dec-02 0.20 -0.18
Mar-03 -0.49 -0.25
Jun-03 -0.30 -0.25
Sep-03 0.19 -0.37
Dec-03 1.20 -0.54
Mar-04 1.18 -0.68
Jun-04 0.98 -0.74
Sep-04 1.00 -0.66
Dec-04 1.05 -0.96
Mar-05 0.87 -0.92
Jun-05 0.74 -0.90
Sep-05 1.14 -0.92
Dec-05 1.04 -0.79
Mar-06 0.51 -0.73
Jun-06 -0.05 -0.84
Sep-06 0.16 -0.91
Dec-06 0.98 -1.01
Mar-07 1.78 -0.92
Jun-07 1.73 -1.09
Sep-07 1.64 -1.01
Dec-07 1.44 -0.83
Mar-08 1.93 -1.04
Jun-08 1.43 -0.81
Sep-08 1.50 -0.78
Dec-08 -0.12 -0.55
Mar-09 0.24 0.31
Jun-09 0.03 0.62
Sep-09 -0.06 0.50
Dec-09 0.15 0.24
Mar-10 0.03 -0.12
Jun-10 -0.04 -0.29
Sep-10 -0.11 -0.49
Dec-10 0.20 -0.57
Mar-11 -0.87 -0.67
Jun-11 -0.42 -0.60
Sep-11 0.00 -0.27
Dec-11 -0.05 -0.21
Mar-12 0.32 -0.18
Jun-12 -0.02 -0.13
Sep-12 -0.17 0.13
Dec-12 -0.60 0.25
Mar-13 -0.91 0.45
Jun-13 -0.87 0.62
Sep-13 -1.02 0.75
Dec-13 -1.00 0.83
Mar-14 -1.03 0.96
Jun-14 -1.49 0.90
Sep-14 -1.70 0.99
Dec-14 -1.92 1.04
Mar-15 -1.85 1.09
Jun-15 -1.83 1.14
Sep-15 -1.89 1.19
Dec-15 -1.91 1.23
Mar-16 -2.15 1.28
Jun-16 -2.29 1.32
Sep-16 -2.07 1.19
Dec-16 -1.85 1.03
Mar-17 -1.63 0.87
Jun-17 -1.43 0.72
Sep-17 -1.42 0.68
Dec-17 -1.42 0.66
Mar-18 -1.42 0.65
Jun-18 -1.40 0.64
Sep-18 -1.27 0.58
Dec-18 -1.14 0.51
Mar-19 -1.01 0.43
Jun-19 -0.88 0.35
Sep-19 -0.80 0.30
Dec-19 -0.72 0.25
Mar-20 -0.63 0.21
Jun-20 -0.54 0.16
Sep-20 -0.41 0.09
Dec-20 -0.27 0.02
Mar-21 -0.14 -0.05
Jun-21 0.00 0.00
Sep-21 0.00 0.00
Dec-21 0.00 0.00
Mar-22 0.00 0.00
Jun-22 0.00 0.00
Sep-22 0.00 0.00
Dec-22 0.00 0.00
Mar-23 0.00 0.00
Jun-23 0.00 0.00
Sep-23 0.00 0.00
Dec-23 0.00 0.00
Mar-24 0.00 0.00
Jun-24 0.00 0.00
Sep-24 0.00 0.00
Dec-24 0.00 0.00
Mar-25 0.00 0.00
Jun-25 0.00 0.00

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Chart A.1: Budget forecast of real GDP growth

This chart shows the Budget year forecasts for real GDP growth and the latest published outcome from 1991-92 to 2012-13

Note: Outcome is as published in the December quarter 2013 National Accounts. Forecast is that published in the Budget for that year.

Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0 and Treasury.

This chart shows the Budget year forecasts for real GDP growth and the latest published outcome from 1991-92 to 2012-13.

Data - Chart A.1: Budget forecast of real GDP growth
X Values Budget forecast Outcome
1991-92 2.50 0.30
1992-93 4.75 4.10
1993-94 3.25 4.00
1994-95 4.50 3.70
1995-96 3.75 3.90
1996-97 3.25 3.90
1997-98 3.75 4.40
1998-99 3.00 5.00
1999-00 3.00 3.90
2000-01 3.75 1.90
2001-02 3.25 3.90
2002-03 3.75 3.10
2003-04 3.25 4.20
2004-05 3.50 3.20
2005-06 3.00 3.00
2006-07 3.25 3.80
2007-08 3.75 3.70
2008-09 2.75 1.70
2009-10 -0.50 2.00
2010-11 3.25 2.20
2011-12 4.00 3.60
2012-13 3.25 2.60

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Chart A.2: Budget forecast of nominal GDP growth

This chart shows the Budget year forecasts for nominal GDP growth and the latest published outcome from 1991-92 to 2012-13.

Note: Outcome is as published in the December quarter 2013 National Accounts. Forecast is that published in the Budget for that year.

Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0 and Treasury.

This chart shows the Budget year forecasts for nominal GDP growth and the latest published outcome from 1991-92 to 2012-13.

Data - Chart A.2: Budget forecast of nominal GDP growth
X Values Budget forecast Outcome
1991-92 4.00 2.00
1992-93 5.75 4.90
1993-94 5.25 5.10
1994-95 6.75 6.30
1995-96 7.25 6.70
1996-97 5.75 5.20
1997-98 6.00 5.80
1998-99 6.25 5.40
1999-00 4.75 6.50
2000-01 6.50 6.70
2001-02 4.50 6.80
2002-03 5.75 6.30
2003-04 5.50 7.60
2004-05 6.00 7.00
2005-06 7.50 8.20
2006-07 5.50 8.90
2007-08 6.25 8.40
2008-09 9.25 6.80
2009-10 -1.50 3.00
2010-11 8.50 8.50
2011-12 6.25 5.60
2012-13 5.00 2.50

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Chart A.3: Evolution of real GDP growth forecasts for 2012-13

This chart shows the evolution of real GDP growth forecasts for 2012-13 from the 2011-12 Budget to the 2013-14 Budget. The chart shows that the latest published outcome for 2012-13 was lower than the forecasts.

Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0 and Treasury.

This chart shows the evolution of real GDP growth forecasts for 2012-13 from the 2011-12 Budget to the 2013-14 Budget. The chart shows that the latest published outcome for 2012-13 was lower than the forecasts.

Data - Chart A.3: Evolution of real GDP growth forecasts for 2012-13
X Values Real GDP forecast Published outcome
Budget 11-12 3.75 2.60
MYEFO 11-12 3.25 2.60
Budget 12-13 3.25 2.60
MYEFO 12-13 3.00 2.60
Budget 13-14 3.00 2.60

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Chart A.4: Evolution of nominal GDP growth forecasts for 2012-13

This chart shows the evolution of nominal GDP growth forecasts for 2012-13 from the 2011-12 Budget to the 2013-14 Budget. The chart shows that the latest published outcome for 2012-13 was lower than the forecasts.

Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0 and Treasury.

This chart shows the evolution of nominal GDP growth forecasts for 2012-13 from the 2011-12 Budget to the 2013-14 Budget. The chart shows that the latest published outcome for 2012-13 was lower than the forecasts.

Data - Chart A.4: Evolution of nominal GDP growth forecasts for 2012-13
X Values Nominal GDP forecast Published outcome
Budget 11-12 5.75 2.50
MYEFO 11-12 5.00 2.50
Budget 12-13 5.00 2.50
MYEFO 12-13 4.00 2.50
Budget 13-14 3.25 2.50

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Chart B.1: Consensus economics real GDP forecasts for calendar year 2014

This chart shows the range of Consensus Economics forecasts for real GDP growth in calendar year 2014 (top and bottom lines), and the mean Consensus Economic forecast (centre line). Published forecasts from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook and the Treasury are also included.

Note: Top and bottom lines represent range of Consensus Economics forecasts. Centre dotted line represents Consensus Economics mean forecast.

Consensus Economics forecasts for 2015 were published for the first time in January 2014. The 2013-14 MYEFO did not contain forecasts for the full 2015 calendar year.

Source: Consensus Economics, IMF and Treasury.

This chart shows the range of Consensus Economics forecasts for real GDP growth in calendar year 2014 (top and bottom lines), and the mean Consensus Economic forecast (centre line). Published forecasts from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook and the Treasury are also included.

Data - Chart B.1: Consensus economics real GDP forecasts for calendar year 2014
X Values Consensus Economics - High forecast Consensus Economics - Low forecast Consensus Economics - Mean forecast Treasury forecast IMF World Economic Outlook forecast
Apr-13 3.80 2.00 3.00    
May-13 3.50 2.00 3.00    
Jun-13 3.50 1.90 2.80    
Jul-13 3.50 1.90 2.70    
Aug-13 3.50 1.90 2.60    
Sep-13 3.30 1.90 2.60    
Oct-13 3.30 2.00 2.60   2.80
Nov-13 3.30 2.00 2.70    
Dec-13 3.30 2.00 2.70 2.25  
Jan-14 3.30 2.00 2.70    
Feb-14 3.20 2.00 2.70    
Mar-14 3.20 2.00 2.80    
Apr-14 3.20 2.00 2.80 2.50 2.60

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Chart B.2: Consensus economics real GDP forecasts for calendar year 2015

This chart shows the range of Consensus Economic forecasts for real GDP growth in calendar year 2015 (top and bottom lines), and the mean Consensus Economics forecast (centre line. Published forecasts from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook and the Treasury are also included.

Note: Top and bottom lines represent range of Consensus Economics forecasts. Centre dotted line represents Consensus Economics mean forecast.

Consensus Economics forecasts for 2015 were published for the first time in January 2014. The 2013-14 MYEFO did not contain forecasts for the full 2015 calendar year.

Source: Consensus Economics, IMF and Treasury.

This chart shows the range of Consensus Economic forecasts for real GDP growth in calendar year 2015 (top and bottom lines), and the mean Consensus Economics forecast (centre line. Published forecasts from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook and the Treasury are also included.

Data - Chart B.2: Consensus economics real GDP forecasts for calendar year 2015
X Values Consensus Economics - High forecast Consensus Economics - Low forecast Consensus Economics - Mean forecast Treasury forecast IMF World Economic Outlook forecast
Jan-14 3.40 2.50 3.00    
Feb-14 3.40 2.30 3.00    
Mar-14 3.40 2.30 2.90    
Apr-14 3.20 2.40 2.90 3.00 2.70

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Chart B.3: Consensus economics unemployment rate forecasts for calendar year 2014

This chart shows the range of Consensus Economics forecasts for the unemployment rate in calendar year 2014 top and bottom lines), and the mean Consensus Economics forecast (centre line). Published forecasts from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook and the Treasury are also included.

Note: Top and bottom lines represent range of Consensus Economics forecasts. Centre line represents Consensus Economics mean forecast.

Consensus Economics forecasts for 2015 were published for the first time in January 2014. The 2013-14 MYEFO did not contain forecasts for the full 2015 calendar year.

Source: Consensus Economics, IMF and Treasury.

This chart shows the range of Consensus Economics forecasts for the unemployment rate in calendar year 2014 top and bottom lines), and the mean Consensus Economics forecast (centre line). Published forecasts from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook and the Treasury are also included.

Data - Chart B.3: Consensus economics unemployment rate forecasts for calendar year 2014
X Values Consensus Economics - High forecast Consensus Economics - Low forecast Consensus Economics - Mean forecast Treasury forecast IMF World Economic Outlook forecast
Apr-13 6.50 5.10 5.60    
May-13 6.50 5.10 5.60    
Jun-13 6.30 5.10 5.60    
Jul-13 6.30 5.30 5.70    
Aug-13 6.40 5.40 5.90    
Sep-13 6.60 5.40 5.90    
Oct-13 6.50 5.50 6.00   6.00
Nov-13 6.50 5.50 5.90    
Dec-13 6.50 5.60 6.00 6.00  
Jan-14 6.40 5.60 6.00    
Feb-14 6.30 5.60 6.00    
Mar-14 6.30 5.60 6.00    
Apr-14 6.30 5.80 6.10 6.00 6.20

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Chart B.4: Consensus economics unemployment rate forecasts for calendar year 2015

Note: Top and bottom lines represent range of Consensus Economics forecasts. Centre line represents Consensus Economics mean forecast.

Consensus Economics forecasts for 2015 were published for the first time in January 2014. The 2013-14 MYEFO did not contain forecasts for the full 2015 calendar year.

Source: Consensus Economics, IMF and Treasury.

This chart shows the range of Consensus Economics forecasts for the unemployment rate in calendar year 2015 (top and bottom lines), and the mean Consensus Economic forecast (centre line). Published forecasts from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook and the Treasury are also included.

Data - Chart B.4: Consensus economics unemployment rate forecasts for calendar year 2015
X Values Consensus Economics - High forecast Consensus Economics - Low forecast Consensus Economics - Mean forecast Treasury forecast IMF World Economic Outlook forecast
Jan-14 6.60 5.10 5.80    
Feb-14 6.50 5.10 5.80    
Mar-14 6.60 5.30 5.90    
Apr-14 6.50 5.60 5.90 6.25 6.20

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