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Australian Government Coat of Arms

Budget | 2014-15

Budget 2014-15
Australian Government Coat of Arms, Budget 2014-15

Budget Paper 1 — Statement 7 - Chart data

Chart 1: Total face value of CGS on issue 2013-14 MYEFO vs 2014-15 Budget

In the scenario with a tax cap, CGS on issue in 2023-24 is expected to be around $390 billion in 2023-24, compared to $750 billion at MYEFO. CGS is projected to peak at $457 billion in 2018-19, then falling every year to $362 in 2024-25.

Note: A tax-to-GDP cap of 23.9 per cent has been applied to these projections. This is the average tax-to-GDP ratio in the years post-GST and pre-GFC. MYEFO tax-cap projection was not published at MYEFO.

Source: Australian Office of Financial Management and Treasury projections.

In the scenario with a tax cap, CGS on issue in 2023-24 is expected to be around $390 billion in 2023-24, compared to $750 billion at MYEFO.

CGS is projected to peak at $457 billion in 2018-19, then falling every year to $362 in 2024-25.

Data - Chart 1: Total face value of CGS on issue 2013-14 MYEFO vs 2014-15 Budget
$ billon 2013-14 MYEFO 2014-15 Budget
2013-14 310 320
2014-15 360 360
2015-16 400 390
2016-17 440 430
2017-18 480 450
2018-19 518 457
2019-20 562 458
2020-21 602 446
2021-22 644 431
2022-23 693 412
2023-24 748 389
2024-25   362

Note: Forward estimates rounded to nearest $10 billion.

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Chart 2: Non-resident holdings of Commonwealth Government Securities

This chart shows the proportion of Commonwealth Government Securities (CGS) held by non-residents.  The left axis records the total value of CGS on issue and the value of CGS on issue held by non- residents.  The total value of CGS on issue has been rising since late 2008 and is $321 billion as at the December quarter 2013.  CGS on issue held by non- residents is $216.6 billion at the same date.  The right axis measures the percentage of CGS on issue held by non-residents.  The percentage of CGS on issue held by non- residents has was 67.5 per cent as at the December quarter 2013, having risen from a low of 34.7 per cent at the june quarter 2003 and fallen from a maximum of 75.8 at the March and June quarter of 2012.

Note: Data refer to the market value of holdings.

Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5302.0 and Australian Office of Financial Management.

This chart shows that the proportion of Commonwealth Government Securities (CGS) held by non-residents remains around historically high levels, having risen significantly since 2009. As at the December quarter 2013, 67.5 per cent of total CGS on issue were held by non-residents of Australia.

Data - Chart 2: Non-resident holdings of Commonwealth Government Securities
X Values Non-resident Holdings
of CGS (LHS) ($b)
Resident Holdings
of CGS (LHS) ($b)
Proportion of
non-resident holdings
(RHS) (per cent)
Jun-03 22.5 42.4 34.7
Sep-03 22.5 36.2 38.4
Dec-03 24.3 33.9 41.7
Mar-04 26.5 32.7 44.7
Jun-04 28.0 32.2 46.5
Sep-04 27.4 30.6 47.2
Dec-04 29.7 29.1 50.6
Mar-05 31.9 28.1 53.2
Jun-05 34.4 27.8 55.3
Sep-05 34.5 22.8 60.2
Dec-05 33.6 25.5 56.8
Mar-06 31.8 27.4 53.7
Jun-06 32.6 26.3 55.3
Sep-06 35.0 25.5 57.9
Dec-06 32.0 23.3 57.8
Mar-07 30.3 26.3 53.5
Jun-07 32.6 23.9 57.7
Sep-07 34.4 24.4 58.6
Dec-07 39.2 17.6 69.0
Mar-08 37.6 20.8 64.4
Jun-08 35.9 22.5 61.4
Sep-08 37.2 22.6 62.2
Dec-08 44.2 23.1 65.7
Mar-09 46.4 34.1 57.6
Jun-09 51.9 55.4 48.4
Sep-09 65.2 46.0 58.6
Dec-09 72.8 50.6 59.0
Mar-10 90.4 47.9 65.4
Jun-10 105.0 52.4 66.7
Sep-10 117.0 55.0 68.0
Dec-10 125.7 56.0 69.2
Mar-11 132.7 60.2 68.8
Jun-11 140.9 60.9 69.8
Sep-11 164.5 64.3 71.9
Dec-11 185.0 64.8 74.1
Mar-12 198.0 63.2 75.8
Jun-12 204.6 65.2 75.8
Sep-12 205.6 81.9 71.5
Dec-12 204.4 91.4 69.1
Mar-13 203.5 95.8 68.0
Jun-13 196.6 89.1 68.8
Sep-13 209.5 98.9 67.9
Dec-13 216.6 104.4 67.5

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Chart 3: Yield curve assumptions from 2013-14 to 2017-18

This chart shows the yield curve assumptions underpinning the 2013-14 Budget, 2013-14 MYEFO and 2014-15 Budget. The assumed market yields at the 2014-15 Budget result in a weighted average cost of borrowing of around 3.7 per cent for future issuance of Treasury Bonds in the forward estimates period, compared with around 3.9 per cent at the 2013-14 MYEFO.

This chart shows the yield curve assumptions underpinning the 2013-14 Budget, 2013-14 MYEFO and 2014-15 Budget. The assumed market yields at the 2014-15 Budget result in a weighted average cost of borrowing of around 3.7 per cent for future issuance of Treasury Bonds in the forward estimates period, compared with around 3.9 per cent at the 2013-14 MYEFO.

Data - Chart 3: Yield curve assumptions from 2013-14 to 2017-18
x values (maturities) 2013-14 Budget 2013-14 MYEFO 2014-15 Budget
1Y nfp nfp nfp
2 Y nfp nfp nfp
3Y nfp nfp nfp
4Y nfp nfp nfp
5Y nfp nfp nfp
6Y nfp nfp nfp
7Y nfp nfp nfp
8Y nfp nfp nfp
9Y nfp nfp nfp
10Y nfp nfp nfp

nfp = not for publication.

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Chart 4: Recurrent and capital spending as a proportion of the Budget in 2014-15

This chart provides a breakdown of the recurrent and capital budgets.

(a) Recurrent payments excluding payments to states and territories include pension and income support payments, government loans, payments to government employees, payments for goods and services, and grants and subsidies not made for capital purposes.

(b) Other capital purchases include the purchase of land and buildings, software and other facilities.

(c) Capital grants and subsidies include payments to recipients other than those within the general government, for example local governments.

(d) State and territory payments include payments for general revenue assistance (including Goods and Services Tax payments) and specific purpose payments.

This chart provides a breakdown of the Government's 2014-15 recurrent and capital budgets. The capital budget is estimated to make up around 9 per cent of the 2014-15 Total Budget.

Data - Chart 4: Recurrent and capital spending as a proportion of the Budget in 2014-15
Total Budget ($million)  424,191
Other recurrent payments (excluding states and territories) 305,007
Capital payments and purchases 36,215
Payments to state and territories for recurrent spending 82,969
Capital Budget ($million) 36,215 
Defence capital 7,246
Other capital purchases 3,507
NBN equity payments 5,200
Payments to states and territories for capital spending 19,814
Other capital grants and subsidies 448

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Chart 5: Decrease in projected defined benefit superannuation liabilities as a result of the closure of the MSBS

This chart shows the Government's projected unfunded superannuation liability out to 30 June 2050.  The chart shows that the policy decsision to close the Military Superannuation and Benefits Scheme to new members from 1 July 2016 will decrease the Government's projected unfunded superannuation liability by $126 billion by 2050.

This chart shows the Government’s projected unfunded superannuation liability out to 30 June 2050. The chart shows that the policy decision to close the Military Superannuation and Benefits Scheme to new members from 1 July 2016 will decrease the Government’s projected unfunded superannuation liability by $126 billion by 2050.

Data - Chart 5: Decrease in projected defined benefit superannuation liabilities as a result of the closure of the MSBS
Public Sector
Superannuation
Scheme
Commonwealth
Superannuation
Scheme
Military
superannuation
schemes
Other
schemes
Unfunded
Liabilities
if MSBS
remained
open
41.78 56.78 56.67 1.79 157.02
45.22 56.64 59.34 1.84 163.04
48.75 56.38 62.01 1.89 169.15
52.39 56.00 64.77 1.93 175.37
56.12 55.50 67.55 1.97 181.69
59.94 54.90 70.35 1.99 188.10
63.77 54.18 73.17 2.03 194.56
67.69 53.36 75.99 2.06 201.13
71.67 52.44 78.84 2.09 207.81
75.65 51.42 81.68 2.12 214.52
79.63 50.31 84.52 2.15 221.28
83.57 49.11 87.35 2.17 228.06
87.45 47.82 90.17 2.20 234.84
91.25 46.46 92.97 2.22 241.61
94.91 45.01 95.75 2.24 248.32
98.45 43.50 98.51 2.27 255.03
101.83 41.93 101.23 2.29 261.69
105.04 40.29 103.92 2.31 268.30
108.01 38.60 106.56 2.33 274.80
110.77 36.86 109.13 2.35 281.24
113.26 35.08 111.63 2.38 287.57
115.44 33.28 114.06 2.40 293.76
117.25 31.45 116.40 2.42 299.78
118.70 29.61 118.64 2.45 305.65
119.83 27.77 120.74 2.47 311.39
120.55 25.93 122.71 2.50 316.95
120.86 24.11 124.52 2.53 322.35
120.70 22.31 126.18 2.57 327.56
120.07 20.55 127.64 2.61 332.57
118.94 18.84 128.92 2.64 337.37
117.31 17.18 129.99 2.69 342.00
115.24 15.58 130.84 2.73 346.51
112.77 14.05 131.46 2.79 350.98
109.91 12.60 131.87 2.86 355.46
106.72 11.22 132.09 2.92 360.03
103.22 9.94 132.14 2.99 364.75
99.48 8.74 132.05 3.06 369.69
33.30 56.19 47.29 1.59 138.37
33.30 56.19 47.29 1.59 138.37
33.30 56.19 47.29 1.59 138.37
33.30 56.19 47.29 1.59 138.37
36.60 55.86 49.12 1.76 143.33
36.60 55.86 49.12 1.76 143.33
41.78 56.78 56.67 1.79 157.02
41.78 56.78 56.67 1.79 157.02
41.78 56.78 56.67 1.79 157.02
45.22 56.64 59.34 1.84 163.04
45.22 56.64 59.34 1.84 163.04
45.22 56.64 59.34 1.84 163.04
48.75 56.38 62.01 1.89 169.15
48.75 56.38 62.01 1.89 169.15
48.75 56.38 62.01 1.89 169.15
52.39 56.00 64.77 1.93 175.37
52.39 56.00 64.77 1.93 175.37
52.39 56.00 64.77 1.93 175.37
56.12 55.50 67.55 1.97 181.69
56.12 55.50 67.55 1.97 181.69
56.12 55.50 67.55 1.97 181.69
59.94 54.90 70.35 1.99 188.10
59.94 54.90 70.35 1.99 188.10
59.94 54.90 70.35 1.99 188.10
63.77 54.18 73.17 2.03 194.56
63.77 54.18 73.17 2.03 194.56
63.77 54.18 73.17 2.03 194.56
67.69 53.36 75.99 2.06 201.13
67.69 53.36 75.99 2.06 201.13
67.69 53.36 75.99 2.06 201.13
71.67 52.44 78.84 2.09 207.81
71.67 52.44 78.84 2.09 207.81
71.67 52.44 78.84 2.09 207.81
75.65 51.42 81.68 2.12 214.52
75.65 51.42 81.68 2.12 214.52
75.65 51.42 81.68 2.12 214.52
79.63 50.31 84.52 2.15 221.28
79.63 50.31 84.52 2.15 221.28
79.63 50.31 84.52 2.15 221.28
83.57 49.11 87.35 2.17 228.06
83.57 49.11 87.35 2.17 228.06
83.57 49.11 87.35 2.17 228.06
87.45 47.82 90.17 2.20 234.84
87.45 47.82 90.17 2.20 234.84
87.45 47.82 90.17 2.20 234.84
91.25 46.46 92.97 2.22 241.61
91.25 46.46 92.97 2.22 241.61
91.25 46.46 92.97 2.22 241.61
94.91 45.01 95.75 2.24 248.32
94.91 45.01 95.75 2.24 248.32
94.91 45.01 95.75 2.24 248.32
98.45 43.50 98.51 2.27 255.03
98.45 43.50 98.51 2.27 255.03
98.45 43.50 98.51 2.27 255.03
101.83 41.93 101.23 2.29 261.69
101.83 41.93 101.23 2.29 261.69
101.83 41.93 101.23 2.29 261.69
105.04 40.29 103.92 2.31 268.30
105.04 40.29 103.92 2.31 268.30
105.04 40.29 103.92 2.31 268.30
108.01 38.60 106.56 2.33 274.80
108.01 38.60 106.56 2.33 274.80
108.01 38.60 106.56 2.33 274.80
110.77 36.86 109.13 2.35 281.24
110.77 36.86 109.13 2.35 281.24
110.77 36.86 109.13 2.35 281.24
113.26 35.08 111.63 2.38 287.57
113.26 35.08 111.63 2.38 287.57
113.26 35.08 111.63 2.38 287.57
115.44 33.28 114.06 2.40 293.76
115.44 33.28 114.06 2.40 293.76
115.44 33.28 114.06 2.40 293.76
117.25 31.45 116.40 2.42 299.78
117.25 31.45 116.40 2.42 299.78
117.25 31.45 116.40 2.42 299.78
118.70 29.61 118.64 2.45 305.65
118.70 29.61 118.64 2.45 305.65
118.70 29.61 118.64 2.45 305.65
119.83 27.77 120.74 2.47 311.39
119.83 27.77 120.74 2.47 311.39
119.83 27.77 120.74 2.47 311.39
120.55 25.93 122.71 2.50 316.95
120.55 25.93 122.71 2.50 316.95
120.55 25.93 122.71 2.50 316.95
120.86 24.11 124.52 2.53 322.35
120.86 24.11 124.52 2.53 322.35
120.86 24.11 124.52 2.53 322.35
120.70 22.31 126.18 2.57 327.56
120.70 22.31 126.18 2.57 327.56
120.70 22.31 126.18 2.57 327.56
120.07 20.55 127.64 2.61 332.57
120.07 20.55 127.64 2.61 332.57
120.07 20.55 127.64 2.61 332.57
118.94 18.84 128.92 2.64 337.37
118.94 18.84 128.92 2.64 337.37
118.94 18.84 128.92 2.64 337.37
117.31 17.18 129.99 2.69 342.00
117.31 17.18 129.99 2.69 342.00
117.31 17.18 129.99 2.69 342.00
115.24 15.58 130.84 2.73 346.51
115.24 15.58 130.84 2.73 346.51
115.24 15.58 130.84 2.73 346.51
112.77 14.05 131.46 2.79 350.98
112.77 14.05 131.46 2.79 350.98
112.77 14.05 131.46 2.79 350.98
109.91 12.60 131.87 2.86 355.46
109.91 12.60 131.87 2.86 355.46
109.91 12.60 131.87 2.86 355.46
106.72 11.22 132.09 2.92 360.03
106.72 11.22 132.09 2.92 360.03
106.72 11.22 132.09 2.92 360.03
103.22 9.94 132.14 2.99 364.75
103.22 9.94 132.14 2.99 364.75
103.22 9.94 132.14 2.99 364.75
99.48 8.74 132.05 3.06 369.69

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