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Australian Government Coat of Arms

Budget | 2014-15

Budget 2014-15
Australian Government Coat of Arms, Budget 2014-15

Mid-year Economic and Fiscal Outlook

Chart Data

Part 1: Overview

Chart 1.1: Underlying cash balance projected to 2024‑25

The underlying cash balance is projected to reach surplus in 2019-20, with the surplus reaching 0.8 per cent of GDP by 2024-25.

Notes: The underlying cash balance excludes Future Fund earnings and payments. A tax‑to‑GDP cap of 23.9 per cent is applied on 2014‑15 Budget and 2014‑15 MYEFO projections.

Source: Treasury projections

Per cent of GDP 2013‑14 2014‑15 2015‑16 2016‑17 2017‑18 2018‑19 2019‑20 2020‑21 2021‑22 2022‑23 2023‑24 2024‑25
2014‑15 Budget ‑3.1 ‑1.8 ‑1.0 ‑0.6 ‑0.2 0.0 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4
2014‑15 MYEFO ‑3.1 ‑2.5 ‑1.9 ‑1.2 ‑0.6 ‑0.4 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8

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Part 2: Economic Outlook

Chart 2.1 Declines in mining wage growth and mining share of employment
Wage growth(a)

This chart shows how mining wages have eased from peak growth of 6.7 per cent through the year in the June quarter 2008, to growing in line with the rest of the economy at 2.5 per cent through the year in September quarter 2014 .

(a) Through the year growth.

Source: ABS cat. no. 6345.0, 6291.0.55.003 and Treasury.

X Values Mining Total excluding mining
Sep‑99 3.0 3.0
Dec‑99 2.9 2.9
Mar‑00 2.3 2.7
Jun‑00 1.8 2.8
Sep‑00 2.2 3.0
Dec‑00 2.4 3.3
Mar‑01 3.5 3.6
Jun‑01 3.7 3.7
Sep‑01 3.3 3.5
Dec‑01 3.7 3.3
Mar‑02 3.7 3.2
Jun‑02 3.5 3.2
Sep‑02 4.2 3.3
Dec‑02 4.0 3.5
Mar‑03 3.2 3.6
Jun‑03 3.0 3.6
Sep‑03 2.7 3.6
Dec‑03 2.8 3.6
Mar‑04 2.8 3.5
Jun‑04 3.2 3.6
Sep‑04 3.4 3.5
Dec‑04 4.0 3.7
Mar‑05 4.1 3.9
Jun‑05 4.9 4.1
Sep‑05 5.1 4.2
Dec‑05 4.4 4.1
Mar‑06 5.0 4.0
Jun‑06 5.9 4.1
Sep‑06 5.8 3.8
Dec‑06 6.3 3.9
Mar‑07 6.1 3.9
Jun‑07 5.5 4.0
Sep‑07 5.5 4.1
Dec‑07 5.1 4.2
Mar‑08 5.9 4.0
Jun‑08 6.7 4.1
Sep‑08 6.4 4.0
Dec‑08 6.3 4.2
Mar‑09 5.8 4.1
Jun‑09 4.2 3.8
Sep‑09 3.7 3.5
Dec‑09 3.5 2.9
Mar‑10 3.4 3.0
Jun‑10 3.8 3.0
Sep‑10 3.8 3.6
Dec‑10 4.6 3.9
Mar‑11 4.6 3.9
Jun‑11 4.1 3.9
Sep‑11 4.2 3.6
Dec‑11 3.6 3.6
Mar‑12 4.6 3.6
Jun‑12 5.2 3.7
Sep‑12 5.2 3.6
Dec‑12 5.1 3.4
Mar‑13 4.2 3.1
Jun‑13 3.5 2.9
Sep‑13 3.2 2.7
Dec‑13 3.1 2.5
Mar‑14 2.4 2.7
Jun‑14 2.5 2.6
Sep‑14 2.5 2.5
Mining share of employment

This chart shows mining employment as a share of total employment from August 1999 to August 2014.

 

 

X Values Mining share of total
Aug‑99 0.9
Nov‑99 0.9
Feb‑00 0.9
May‑00 0.9
Aug‑00 0.9
Nov‑00 0.9
1‑Feb 0.8
1‑May 0.9
1‑Aug 0.9
1‑Nov 0.9
2‑Feb 0.9
2‑May 0.9
2‑Aug 0.9
2‑Nov 1.0
3‑Feb 1.0
3‑May 0.9
3‑Aug 0.9
3‑Nov 1.0
4‑Feb 1.1
4‑May 1.1
4‑Aug 1.0
4‑Nov 1.0
5‑Feb 1.1
5‑May 1.1
5‑Aug 1.2
5‑Nov 1.3
6‑Feb 1.3
6‑May 1.3
6‑Aug 1.3
6‑Nov 1.3
7‑Feb 1.3
7‑May 1.3
7‑Aug 1.3
7‑Nov 1.3
8‑Feb 1.3
8‑May 1.5
8‑Aug 1.6
8‑Nov 1.7
9‑Feb 1.6
9‑May 1.4
9‑Aug 1.5
9‑Nov 1.5
10‑Feb 1.6
10‑May 1.6
10‑Aug 1.8
10‑Nov 1.8
11‑Feb 1.8
11‑May 1.9
11‑Aug 2.0
11‑Nov 2.1
12‑Feb 2.2
12‑May 2.4
12‑Aug 2.4
12‑Nov 2.3
13‑Feb 2.3
13‑May 2.3
13‑Aug 2.3
13‑Nov 2.4
14‑Feb 2.4
14‑May 2.3
14‑Aug 2.0

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Chart 2.2 Spot price developments and forecasts

o	The chart shows iron ore US dollar spot price for 62 per cent iron content on a free-on-board basis between June 2010 and the Treasury forecast to June 2016. The chart shows the iron ore price falling from its peak in 2011 to its current level and shows the volatility of the series. The forecast assumes prices remain flat at US dollar 60 per tonne throughout the forecast period.

Source: Platts and Treasury.

Chart 2.2 is based on commercial-in-confidence daily spot price data and Treasury is unable to publish it. However, Treasury has permission to publish the quarterly average of this data (below).

X Values US$/t FOB
Jun‑10 148
Sep‑10 127
Dec‑10 147
Mar‑11 170
Jun‑11 169
Sep‑11 168
Dec‑11 129
Mar‑12 135
Jun‑12 134
Sep‑12 106
Dec‑12 113
Mar‑13 141
Jun‑13 118
Sep‑13 122
Dec‑13 123
Mar‑14 111
Jun‑14 94
Sep‑14 81
Dec‑14 66
Mar‑15 60
Jun‑15 60
Sep‑15 60
Dec‑15 60
Mar‑16 60
Jun‑16 60

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Chart 2.3 Metallurgical coal and thermal coal prices
Metallurgical coal

These charts show the US dollar spot price for metallurgical coal and thermal coal from June 2011 and the Treasury forecast to June 2016. Both charts show metallurgical coal and thermal coal prices falling from the peaks in 2011.

Source: Platts, Bloomberg and Treasury.

X Values US$/t FOB Current spot price
Jun‑11 283  
Sep‑11 255  
Dec‑11 233  
Mar‑12 214  
Jun‑12 221  
Sep‑12 172  
Dec‑12 155  
Mar‑13 166  
Jun‑13 142  
Sep‑13 141  
Dec‑13 140  
Mar‑14 120  
Jun‑14 111  
Sep‑14 111  
Dec‑14 110 111
Mar‑15 110  
Jun‑15 110  
Sep‑15 110  
Dec‑15 110  
Mar‑16 110  
Jun‑16 110  
Thermal coal

These charts show the US dollar spot price for metallurgical coal and thermal coal from June 2011 and the Treasury forecast to June 2016. Both charts show metallurgical coal and thermal coal prices falling from the peaks in 2011.

 

X Values US$/t FOB Current spot price
Jun‑11 120  
Sep‑11 121  
Dec‑11 114  
Mar‑12 112  
Jun‑12 95  
Sep‑12 86  
Dec‑12 84  
Mar‑13 91  
Jun‑13 85  
Sep‑13 77  
Dec‑13 82  
Mar‑14 78  
Jun‑14 73  
Sep‑14 68  
Dec‑14 63 64
Mar‑15 63  
Jun‑15 63  
Sep‑15 63  
Dec‑15 63  
Mar‑16 63  
Jun‑16 63  

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Chart 2.4: Real GDP growth

The chart shows historical and forecast real GDP growth over the period 1987-88 to 2017‑18 and the 30 year

Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0 and Treasury.

X Values Annual growth 30‑year average
1987‑88 5.8 3.3
1988‑89 3.9 3.3
1989‑90 3.5 3.3
1990‑91 ‑0.4 3.3
1991‑92 0.4 3.3
1992‑93 4.0 3.3
1993‑94 4.0 3.3
1994‑95 3.9 3.3
1995‑96 3.9 3.3
1996‑97 3.9 3.3
1997‑98 4.4 3.3
1998‑99 5.0 3.3
1999‑00 3.9 3.3
2000‑01 1.9 3.3
2001‑02 3.9 3.3
2002‑03 3.1 3.3
2003‑04 4.2 3.3
2004‑05 3.2 3.3
2005‑06 3.0 3.3
2006‑07 3.8 3.3
2007‑08 3.7 3.3
2008‑09 1.7 3.3
2009‑10 2.0 3.3
2010‑11 2.3 3.3
2011‑12 3.7 3.3
2012‑13 2.5 3.3
2013‑14 2.5 3.3
2014‑15 2.5  
2015‑16 3.0  
2016‑17 3.5  
2017‑18 3.5  

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Part 3: Fiscal Strategy and Outlook

Chart 3.1: Changes to the Underlying Cash Balance since Budget

Chart 3.1: Changes to the Underlying Cash Balance since Budget

$ billion Net impact of policy decisions Receipts Impacts of the Senate Other payment variations
2014-15 -0.25 -6.12 -3.53 -0.70
2015-16 0.13 -6.90 -3.10 -4.29
2016-17 1.32 -7.60 -2.41 -1.60
2017-18 1.97 -8.14 -1.58 -0.90
Total 3.17 -28.75 -10.61 -7.49

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Chart 3.2: Underlying cash balance projected to 2024‑25

Chart 3.2: Underlying cash balance projected to 2024-25

Note: The underlying cash balance excludes Future Fund earnings and payments. A tax‑to‑GDP cap of 23.9 per cent is applied on 2014‑15 Budget and 2014‑15 MYEFO projections.

Source: Treasury projections.

Per cent of GDP 2013‑14 2014‑15 2015‑16 2016‑17 2017‑18 2018‑19 2019‑20 2020‑21 2021‑22 2022‑23 2023‑24 2024‑25
2014‑15 Budget ‑3.1 ‑1.8 ‑1.0 ‑0.6 ‑0.2 0.0 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4
2014‑15 MYEFO ‑3.1 ‑2.5 ‑1.9 ‑1.2 ‑0.6 ‑0.4 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8

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Chart 3.3: Face value of Commonwealth Government Securities projected to 2024‑25

Commonwealth Government Securities (CGS) on issue are expected to reach $499 billion in 2023-24, a fall of nearly $170 billion compared to $667 billion at the 2013‑14 MYEFO. This allows for future tax relief for which allowance was not included in the 2013‑14 MYEFO figures. CGS on issue was projected to reach $389 billion in 2023-24 at the time of the 2014‑15 Budget.

Note: A tax‑to‑GDP cap of 23.9 per cent is applied on 2014‑15 Budget and 2014‑15 MYEFO projections. No tax cap has been applied on 2013‑14 MYEFO projections.

Source: Australian Office of Financial Management and Treasury projections.

$ billion 2013‑14 2014‑15 2015‑16 2016‑17 2017‑18 2018‑19 2019‑20 2020‑21 2021‑22 2022‑23 2023‑24 2024‑25
2013‑14 MYEFO 313 360 398 436 478 518 560 592 619 645 667 0
2014‑15 Budget 319 361 395 433 447 457 458 446 431 412 389 362
2014‑15 MYEFO 319 370 415 461 484 505 516 515 509 506 499 491

Note: All figures rounded to the nearest billion.

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Chart 3.4: Net debt projected to 2024‑25

Commonwealth Government Securities (CGS) on issue are expected to reach $499 billion in 2023-24, a fall of nearly $170 billion compared to $667 billion at the 2013‑14 MYEFO. This allows for future tax relief for which allowance was not included in the 2013-14 MYEFO figures. CGS on issue was projected to reach $389 billion in 2023-24 at the time of the 2014-15 Budget.

Note: A tax‑to‑GDP cap of 23.9 per cent is applied on 2014‑15 Budget and 2014‑15 MYEFO projections.

Source: Treasury projections.

Per cent of GDP 2013‑14 2014‑15 2015‑16 2016‑17 2017‑18 2018‑19 2019‑20 2020‑21 2021‑22 2022‑23 2023‑24 2024‑25
2014‑15 Budget 12.8 13.9 14.4 14.6 14.0 13.4 11.1 8.7 6.6 4.5 2.6 0.7
2014‑15 MYEFO 12.8 15.2 16.7 17.2 17.0 15.3 13.2 10.7 8.9 7.3 6.0 4.7

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Chart 3.5: Net interest payments projected to 2024‑25

Commonwealth Government Securities (CGS) on issue are expected to reach $499 billion in 2023-24, a fall of nearly $170 billion compared to $667 billion at the 2013-14 MYEFO. This allows for future tax relief for which allowance was not included in the 2013-14 MYEFO figures. CGS on issue was projected to reach $389 billion in 2023-24 at the time of the 2014-15 Budget.

Note: Net interest payments are total interest receipts minus total interest payments. A tax‑to‑GDP cap of 23.9 per cent is applied on 2014‑15 Budget and 2014‑15 MYEFO projections. No tax cap has been applied on 2013‑14 MYEFO projections.

Source: Treasury projections.

$ billion 2013‑14 2014‑15 2015‑16 2016‑17 2017‑18 2018‑19 2019‑20 2020‑21 2021‑22 2022‑23 2023‑24 2024‑25
2013‑14 MYEFO 8.8 10.6 13.5 12.8 15.6 17.8 20.0 21.8 23.2 25.3 27.0
2014‑15 Budget 10.8 10.5 11.5 12.2 12.9 13.1 12.6 11.5 10.3 9.7 8.3 6.6
2014‑15 MYEFO 10.8 10.8 11.3 12.1 12.7 13.7 13.5 13.4 13.0 14.2 14.3 14.7

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Chart 3.6: Cumulative effect of revenue measures since the 2008‑09 Budget

This chart shows the cumulative value of revenue measure decisions by the former government from the 2008-09 Budget to the 2013 PEFO building to over $100 billion. The cumulative value of revenue decisions of this government from MYEFO 2013-14 to the 2014-15 MYEFO is a reduction in revenue of over $7 billion.

*Cumulative value of revenue measures taken each budget year.

Cumulative impact of measures between 2008-09 Budget to 2013 PEFO ($b)
2008-09 28.99
2009-10 26.05
2010-11 20.69
2011-12 50.45
2012-13 79.14
2013-14 107.33
2013-14 -14.35
2014-15 -7.44

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Chart 3.7: Structural budget balance estimates

The outlook for the structural budget balance has deteriorated slightly since the 2014-15 Budget. The structural position of the budget is forecast to improve to a small surplus by 2019-20 and is projected to reach a surplus of around 1 per cent of GDP beyond that.

Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0, 5302.0, 6202.0, 6401.0 and Treasury.

Note: The grey range spans structural budget estimates using the average terms of trade between 1986‑87 and 2010‑11 (lower bound), which is the OECD's assumption for Australia's structural level of the terms of trade, and using the forecast average from 2003‑04 to 2016‑17 (upper bound). The central estimate is based on the structural level of the terms of trade in the Government's medium‑term economic projections. The methodology for producing the structural budget balance estimates was detailed in Treasury Working Paper 2013‑01.

Date Underlying cash balance Structural budget balance Upper Bound (Deloitte) SBB Estimate Lower Bound (OECD) SBB Estimate Structural budget balance band
2003‑04 0.93 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.00
2004‑05 1.47 1.22 1.22 0.92 ‑0.29
2005‑06 1.58 1.16 1.16 0.33 ‑0.82
2006‑07 1.58 0.45 1.00 ‑0.41 ‑1.40
2007‑08 1.68 ‑0.18 0.45 ‑0.96 ‑1.41
2008‑09 ‑2.15 ‑3.62 ‑3.01 ‑4.40 ‑1.40
2009‑10 ‑4.20 ‑4.79 ‑4.23 ‑5.50 ‑1.27
2010‑11 ‑3.37 ‑4.33 ‑3.83 ‑4.95 ‑1.12
2011‑12 ‑2.92 ‑4.12 ‑3.61 ‑4.76 ‑1.14
2012‑13 ‑1.24 ‑1.92 ‑1.37 ‑2.61 ‑1.24
2013‑14 ‑3.15 ‑3.38 ‑2.80 ‑4.12 ‑1.32
2014‑15 ‑2.51 ‑2.03 ‑1.38 ‑2.84 ‑1.46
2015‑16 ‑1.86 ‑1.07 ‑0.39 ‑1.93 ‑1.55
2016‑17 ‑1.18 ‑0.51 0.21 ‑1.42 ‑1.63
2017‑18 ‑0.62 ‑0.12 0.63 ‑1.07 ‑1.71
2018‑19 ‑0.45 ‑0.03 0.75 ‑1.01 ‑1.76
2019‑20 0.24 0.52 1.32 ‑0.48 ‑1.80
2020‑21 0.58 0.68 1.48 ‑0.32 ‑1.81
2021‑22 0.69 0.70 1.50 ‑0.30 ‑1.80
2022‑23 0.72 0.72 1.51 ‑0.28 ‑1.79
2023‑24 0.68 0.68 1.48 ‑0.31 ‑1.79
2024‑25 0.78 0.78 1.57 ‑0.21 ‑1.78

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Chart 3.8: Confidence intervals around real GDP growth rate forecasts

This chart shows confidence intervals around the MYEFO forecast for average annualised real GDP growth. The forecast for average annualised real GDP growth from 2013‑14 to 2014‑15 is around 2½ per cent, with the 90 per cent confidence interval around 2½ percentage points wide.

Note: The central line shows the outcomes and the 2014‑15 MYEFO forecasts. Annual growth rates are reported for the outcomes. Average annualised growth rates from 2013‑14 are reported for 2014‑15 onwards. (f) are forecasts. Confidence intervals are based on the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of December forecasts from 1998 onwards, with outcomes based on September quarter 2014 National Accounts data.

Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0 and Treasury.

X Values Central forecast 90 upper 70 upper 70 lower 90 lower
2007‑08 3.7
2008‑09 1.7
2009‑10 2.0
2010‑11 2.3
2011‑12 3.7
2012‑13 2.5
2013‑14 2.5
2013‑14 to 14‑15 (f) 2.4 3.60 3.16 1.64 1.20
2013‑14 to 15‑16 (f) 2.7 3.74 3.35 2.05 1.66

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Chart 3.9: Confidence intervals around nominal GDP growth rate forecasts

This chart shows confidence intervals around the MYEFO forecast for average annualised nominal GDP growth. The forecast for average annnualised nominal GDP growth from 2013‑14 to 2014‑15 is around 1 ½ per cent, with the 90 per cent confidence interval around 3 ¾ percentage points wide.

Note: See note to Chart 3.8.

Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0 and Treasury.

X Values Central forecast 90 upper 70 upper 70 lower 90 lower
2007‑08 8.4
2008‑09 6.8
2009‑10 3.0
2010‑11 8.6
2011‑12 5.6
2012‑13 2.2
2013‑14 4.1
2013‑14 to 14‑15 (f) 1.6 3.42 2.75 0.45 ‑0.22
2013‑14 to 15‑16 (f) 3.0 5.38 4.50 1.50 0.62

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Chart 3.10: Confidence intervals around receipt forecasts

This chart shows confidence intervals around the 2013‑14 MYEFO forecast for receipts (excluding GST) as a percentage of GDP. The 2013‑14 MYEFO forecast for receipts (excluding GST) is approximately 20.0 per cent of GDP in 2013‑14. The 90 per cent confidence interval for 2013‑14 is around 1.8 percentage points wide.

Note: The central line shows the outcomes and 2014‑15 MYEFO point estimate forecasts. Confidence

intervals use RMSEs for Budget forecasts from the 1998‑99 Budget onwards.

Source: Budget papers and Treasury.

X Values Central forecast (% GDP) 90% upper 70% upper 70% lower 90% lower
2007-08 21.4
2008-09 20.0
2009-10 18.6
2010-11 18.2
2011-12 19.1
2012-13 19.9
2013-14 19.5
2014-15 20.3 21.14 20.82 19.72 19.40
2015-16 20.6 23.09 22.18 19.06 18.15

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Chart 3.11: Confidence intervals around payment forecasts

This chart shows confidence intervals around the 2013‑14 MYEFO forecast for payments (excluding GST) as a percentage of GDP. The 2013‑14 MYEFO forecast for payments (excluding GST) is approximately 22.8 per cent of GDP in 2013‑14. The 90 per cent confidence interval for 2013‑14 is around 1.3 percentage points wide.

Note: See note to Chart 3.10.

Source: Budget papers and Treasury.

X Values Central forecast (% GDP) 90% upper 70% upper 70% lower 90% lower
2007-08 19.5        
2008-09 21.8        
2009-10 22.6        
2010-11 21.3        
2011-12 21.8        
2012-13 21.0        
2013-14 22.5        
2014-15 22.6 23.19 22.96 22.19 21.96
2015-16 22.3 23.21 22.86 21.68 21.33

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Chart 3.12: Confidence intervals around the underlying cash balance forecasts

This chart shows confidence intervals around the 2013‑14 MYEFO forecast for payments (excluding GST) as a percentage of GDP. The 2013‑14 MYEFO forecast for the underlying cash balance (excluding expected net Future Fund earnings) is approximately -3.0 per cent of GDP in 2013‑14. The 90 per cent confidence interval for 2013‑14 is around 2.4 percentage points wide.

Note: See note to Chart 3.10.

Source: Budget papers and Treasury.

X Values Central forecast (% GDP) 90% upper 70% upper 70% lower 90% lower
2007-08 1.7        
2008-09 -2.1        
2009-10 -4.2        
2010-11 -3.4        
2011-12 -2.9        
2012-13 -1.2        
2013-14 -3.1        
2014-15 -2.5 -1.34 -1.77 -3.25 -3.69
2015-16 -1.9 0.98 -0.07 -3.65 -4.70

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Chart 3.13: Total face value of CGS on issue 2014‑15 Budget vs 2014‑15 MYEFO

Commonwealth Government Securities (CGS) on issue are expected to reach $499 billion in 2023-24, a fall of nearly $170 billion compared to $667 billion at the 2013‑14 MYEFO. This allows for future tax relief for which allowance was not included in the 2013‑14 MYEFO figures. CGS on issue was projected to reach $389 billion in 2023-24 at the time of the 2014‑15 Budget.

Note: A tax‑to‑GDP cap of 23.9 per cent is applied on 2014‑15 Budget and 2014‑15 MYEFO projections. No tax cap has been applied to 2013‑14 MYEFO projections.

Source: Australian Office of Financial Management and Treasury projections.

$ billion 2013‑14 2014‑15 2015‑16 2016‑17 2017‑18 2018‑19 2019‑20 2020‑21 2021‑22 2022‑23 2023‑24 2024‑25
2013‑14 MYEFO 313 360 398 436 478 518 560 592 619 645 667 0
2014‑15 Budget 319 361 395 433 447 457 458 446 431 412 389 362
2014‑15 MYEFO 319 370 415 461 484 505 516 515 509 506 499 491

Note: All figures rounded to the nearest billion.

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Chart 3.14: Non‑resident holdings of Commonwealth Government Securities

This chart shows that the proportion of Commonwealth Government Securities (CGS) held by non-residents has risen significantly since 2009, and remains at historically high levels.  As at the September quarter 2014, 66.1 per cent of total CGS on issue were held by non-residents of Australia.

Note: Data refer to the market value of holdings.

Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5302.0 and Australian Office of Financial Management.

x values Non‑resident Holdings of CGS (LHS) ($b) Resident Holdings of CGS (LHS) ($b) Proportion of non‑resident holdings (RHS) (per cent)
Jun‑03 22.5 42.4 34.7
Sep‑03 22.5 36.2 38.4
Dec‑03 24.3 33.9 41.7
Mar‑04 26.5 32.7 44.7
Jun‑04 28.0 32.2 46.5
Sep‑04 27.4 30.6 47.2
Dec‑04 29.7 29.1 50.6
Mar‑05 31.9 28.1 53.2
Jun‑05 34.4 27.8 55.3
Sep‑05 34.5 22.8 60.2
Dec‑05 33.6 25.5 56.8
Mar‑06 31.8 27.4 53.7
Jun‑06 32.6 26.3 55.3
Sep‑06 35.0 25.5 57.9
Dec‑06 32.0 23.3 57.8
Mar‑07 30.3 26.3 53.5
Jun‑07 32.6 23.9 57.7
Sep‑07 34.4 24.4 58.6
Dec‑07 39.2 17.6 69.0
Mar‑08 37.6 20.8 64.4
Jun‑08 35.9 22.5 61.4
Sep‑08 37.2 22.6 62.2
Dec‑08 44.2 23.1 65.7
Mar‑09 46.4 34.1 57.6
Jun‑09 51.9 55.4 48.4
Sep‑09 65.2 46.0 58.6
Dec‑09 72.8 50.6 59.0
Mar‑10 90.4 47.9 65.4
Jun‑10 105.0 52.4 66.7
Sep‑10 117.0 55.0 68.0
Dec‑10 125.7 56.0 69.2
Mar‑11 132.7 60.2 68.8
Jun‑11 140.9 60.9 69.8
Sep‑11 164.5 64.3 71.9
Dec‑11 185.0 64.8 74.1
Mar‑12 198.0 63.2 75.8
Jun‑12 204.6 65.2 75.8
Sep‑12 205.6 81.9 71.5
Dec‑12 204.4 91.4 69.1
Mar‑13 203.5 95.8 68.0
Jun‑13 196.6 89.1 68.8
Sep‑13 209.5 98.9 67.9
Dec‑13 216.6 104.4 67.5
Mar‑14 226.2 111.3 67.0
Jun‑14 238.9 112.4 68.0
Sep‑14 246.9 126.4 66.1

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Chart 3.15: Yield curve assumptions from 2014‑15 to 2017‑18

Chart 3.15: Yield curve assumptions from 2014-15 to 2017-18

Source: Australian Office of Financial Management.

x values (maturities) 2013-14 Budget 2013-14 MYEFO 2014-15 Budget
1 Y nfp nfp nfp
2 Y nfp nfp nfp
3Y nfp nfp nfp
4Y nfp nfp nfp
5Y nfp nfp nfp
6Y nfp nfp nfp
7Y nfp nfp nfp
8Y nfp nfp nfp
9Y nfp nfp nfp
10Y nfp nfp nfp

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