Appendix H

Detailed economic forecasts for 2009‑10 and 2010‑11

The table below shows the Government's macroeconomic forecasts.(a) The Australian economy is expected to contract by ½ of a per cent in 2009‑10. More comprehensive information is provided in Budget Paper No. 1, Budget Strategy and Outlook 2009‑10, Statement 2.

Table: Detailed economic forecasts for 2009-10 and 2010-11
  • a Percentage change on previous year unless otherwise indicated.
  • b Calculated using original data.
  • c Chain volume measures except for nominal gross domestic product which is in current prices.
  • d Excluding second‑hand asset sales from the public sector to the private sector.
  • e Percentage point contribution to growth in GDP.
  • f Through the year growth rate to the June quarter.
  • g Estimate for the June quarter.
  • Note: The forecasts are based on several technical assumptions. The exchange rate is assumed to remain around its recent average level — a trade-weighted index of around 59 and a United States dollar exchange rate of around 72 US cents. Interest rates are assumed to move broadly in line with market expectations. World oil prices (Malaysian Tapis) are assumed to remain around US$56 per barrel. The farm sector forecasts are based on an assumption of average seasonal conditions in the future, but account for current low water storage levels.